Coming into Focus: Lenses to Gauge Alberta’s Future Growth Opportunities
- Ailsa Popilian
- Sep 17
- 6 min read
Updated: Oct 9
SERIES: PART 3 of 3
When a range of opportunities is on the table, spreading bets can lead to big wins — but success relies on the strategies used. Alberta can hedge across a number of emerging energy and resource sectors, yet the real challenge is where to place those bets to maximize future success.
In the first and second parts of this series we introduced 16 low-emission opportunities and scratched the surface on ways to evaluate them, focusing on the potential size of their market share and whether they’re primarily domestic or export-oriented. But there’s more than one way to slice the pie and applying the right set of lenses can sharpen focus on the ones that make the most strategic sense.
The opportunity landscape
Alberta has traditionally been an export economy and is very likely to stay that way. But today’s geopolitical and industrial context demands a more nuanced approach than in the past. Trade volatility, shifts in U.S. policy, and changing investment trends require opportunities to be assessed not just by size, but by how well they jive with regional strengths and advantages. When matched successfully, these opportunities can also help solve for some of Canada’s broader challenges: navigating trade uncertainty, addressing infrastructure constraints, and building resilience to policy shifts.
That’s where lenses come into play — a way to gauge what can work well, and where. In this study, we introduce a set of lenses designed to evaluate sectoral opportunities. When looked at together, the lenses provide a wide-angle view and a useful tool for comparative assessment showing where Alberta’s strengths can be leveraged, and offering relevant insights that might otherwise be overlooked.
Lenses provide a wide-angle view and a useful tool for comparative assessment, offering relevant insights that might otherwise be overlooked
And when applied individually, each lens provides a more granular way to evaluate an opportunity — soon to be further demonstrated when the full report is released. Like real lenses, they can be used to zoom out to reveal the bigger picture or zoomed in to bring specific opportunities into focus.
These lenses provide a way to explore potential opportunities from multiple angles, capturing nuance, and supporting more informed decisions even amid uncertainty. And similar to how not all opportunities will work in all places, not all stakeholders will be shared on which ones to pursue.
Visualizing the opportunities
The heat map brings insights from the lenses together in a visual snapshot, showing how these opportunities stack up. It highlights potential across a range of key factors and shares a high-level view of each sector's value proposition, offering perspective rather than definitive recommendations.
Lenses
Providing the detail behind the heat map, looking through each lens can prompt considerations that may not traditionally factor into investment and policy decisions. And while people and players may disagree on which opportunities to pursue, the lenses not only provide a relative scale, but a means to assess both competitive potential and potential trade-offs. When combined with regional fit, these lenses help to take the analysis from what looks promising on paper to what makes sense in the real world.
Lenses help to take the analysis from what looks promising on paper to what makes sense in the real world
Domestic vs. export In the first part of this series we introduced this lens to examine whether an opportunity primarily serves Alberta’s domestic market or is positioned for export to North American and/or global markets. The study findings emphasize how each sector contributes to a broader low-carbon economy.
Even though the Clean Energy Enablers identified in the study primarily serve the domestic market, they play a critical role; the accessibility and proximity of reliable clean energy can underpin investment in many of the export-oriented sectors. Without these enablers, the case for prioritizing other export opportunities becomes less clear, making them a foundational element of any sectoral strategy.
Market potential
In the second part of this series we introduced the forecasted potential of key markets for each opportunity in the decade ahead based on the market that each sector is likely to be able to sell to.
A rating of ‘high’ means the annual market size is greater than $25 billion; ‘low’ means it is less than $1 billion, and ‘medium’ falls in between. It is important to note that the rating reflects only the size of the market and not the extent to which Alberta companies are likely to be successful in capturing market share.
While this offers insight into where markets are heading, political and economic shifts could alter these projections.
Comparative advantage
This lens looks at how well Alberta is positioned for success in each sector compared to other jurisdictions competing for similar markets. Critical factors for assessing Alberta’s advantage include natural resource availability, sectoral experience and existing infrastructure. Other supporting considerations include the availability of skilled labour, research and development (R&D), incentives, regulatory frameworks, and sector roadmaps, along with the extent to which these exist or could be developed over time.
Ratings reflect Alberta’s relative strengths — providing a view of where the province holds an advantage and where it doesn't presently stand out from the pack.
Independence
This lens considers the extent to which a sector’s success relies on other parts of the energy system. Some opportunities are relatively independent, for example solar which requires limited coordination beyond grid connection. Others, such as hydrogen, are dependent on parallel infrastructure being developed i.e. carbon capture, transportation, and customer adoption.
While high interdependence does not necessarily mean an opportunity should be avoided, it highlights the complexity and potential delays involved in building a viable industry. In this context, a rating of ‘high’ indicates less dependence on other parts of the system or sector.
Location flexibility
How easily can sectoral projects be sited across the province? This lens considers geographic, infrastructure, and resource requirements. Some of the opportunities have high flexibility with minimal constraints, while others face more limitations e.g. needing access to water, rail, CCS infrastructure, or specific geologic conditions.
Investment environment
A way of evaluating the maturity of the investment environment, this lens reflects how easily private capital can be mobilized to support growth in the sector. Ratings range from early-stage to well-established, indicating whether investment pathways are emerging or already proven.
While primarily focused on Alberta, relevant national or global investment dynamics are taken into account. Understanding the investment environment helps to gauge the speed at which sectors can scale. And while a well-established investment environment doesn’t guarantee project funding, it does signal that established pathways have successfully connected investment with project opportunities in the sector. For instance, investment in alternative proteins demonstrates a pathway for connecting capital with projects; whereas Alberta has seen fewer investments in minerals and metals processing to date, the sector is familiar to investors and the market potential is immense.
Resilience to US policy
It’s important to assess how sensitive each sector is to changes in U.S. policy or market conditions given that the United States is both a key market and a competitor. Sectors with high resilience, like Clean Energy Enablers, are less affected by U.S. policy actions such as tariffs, incentives, or production demands. In contrast, product export sectors, like green chemistry, are more exposed due to heavy integration with U.S. markets — for example, 87% of Alberta’s chemicals are sold to the U.S.
Ratings reflect the degree of vulnerability and identify where Alberta businesses can operate with relative stability versus where external policy shifts could have a significant impact on competitiveness.
Sharpening the focus
Applying the lenses makes it possible to zoom out and get a 30,000 foot view of the landscape, revealing where opportunities make strategic sense. Where they intersect with regional strengths, interests, and priorities can point to what’s worth pursuing — and where.
But this is about more than spotting potential. It’s about taking deliberate action while the opportunities are still within view. This hinges on making strategic choices while simultaneously recognizing – at the risk of sounding like a broken record – that what works in one region may not work in another. Regions will have differing priorities: job creation, resilience to policy shifts, emissions reduction, and more. For some, priorities will be influenced by a mix of factors and require “stacking” multiple lenses to get the clearest picture.
Layering these lenses with regional insight brings the opportunities that matter into sharper focus, helping to see the board more clearly before placing any bets. It highlights where Alberta’s real comparative advantages lie and surfaces insights that can strengthen the province’s future economic competitiveness.
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