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Innovators. Entrepreneurial. Ambitious. This is how Albertans have long described themselves, a story often centred around our successful development of the oil sands, Alberta’s most consequential bet. But now the province is faced with a difficult question to reconcile: is this who we are or just who we were? This question will be answered one way or the other, whether we respond to it directly or not. Quite simply, some forces are bigger than Alberta. The question we should be asking ourselves is, do we want to dictate our future, or have our future dictated to us. Climate change and the global focus on emissions and sustainability is one of those forces. The recent UN Climate Change Conference (“COP ‘26”), where delegates from all over the world came to set a path of action to decrease emissions, serves as just one reminder. While Alberta doesn’t get to decide whether or how other jurisdictions, investors, or consumers move forward, we do get to decide how we respond. Are we the innovators and problem-solvers we claim we are, ready to lean into the next great challenge or are we spectators in a game we would prefer not to play? To be sure, there is and has been great work taking place across Alberta on climate action, especially in the traditional energy industry. The oil and gas industry has made major headway to decrease its emissions intensity; it is the largest investor of clean technology in Canada and has built the world’s largest Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (“CCUS”) transportation network which, in essence, captures harmful carbon emissions and safely transports and stores them to limit their consequences. While this is important and essential work, there is a much bigger opportunity on the horizon for Alberta. The global challenge Decreasing emissions quickly enough to stave off the most harmful effects of climate change will require reducing emissions from activities that produce them (e.g. driving a car; heating our homes; producing energy; and raising cattle)–an enormous challenge, of which few truly appreciate the scope and complexity–as well as direct air capture, which involves removing emissions from the atmosphere (like a giant air filter). This latter strategy, sometimes called “negative emissions”, is considered increasingly central to beating the clock, yet little progress has been made to enable it in a way that is scalable or cost-effective enough to move the dial. As The Economist recently noted, “If negative emissions are to play a role in policy, much more needs to be done to make them practically achievable.” As they put it, emissions removal technologies remain “at best, embryonic.” The opportunity for Alberta Now is the time for Alberta to be very Albertan once again. We need to take bold steps to solve the world’s most pressing challenge–the need for food, goods, and energy on a planet that cannot withstand the emissions currently associated with them. We could easily rationalize our way out of it– the risk, the cost, the unknown. Or, we can recognize the possibility of leading the charge to transform the irrational into the practical. What is often forgotten in retelling the story of Alberta’s oil sands is how ridiculous the idea sounded at the time–and the staunch opposition to the project received from many. First it was thought impossible, then cost-prohibitive, and now oil sands production is not only feasible, but offers some of the only oil on earth with a path to net-zero. A similar story could prove true for negative emissions. Revolutionary ideas rarely sound practical. Burt Rutan said, “Revolutionary ideas come from nonsense. If an idea is truly a breakthrough, then the day before it was discovered, it must have been considered crazy or nonsense or both–otherwise it wouldn’t be a breakthrough”. Developing the oil sands was the epitome of revolutionary nonsense: “a daring venture into an unknown field”, a field which at the time could have been described as “embryonic”. This time, Alberta is not starting from square one. We already have the experience and agility to become competitive in negative emissions technologies: familiarity and use of existing technologies like CCUS, individuals with deep knowledge of energy, emissions, and clean tech, as well as vast amounts of land for carbon storage and a strong underlying incentive–an abundance of valuable hydrocarbon resources to tap into in new ways that limit emissions. In fact, many oil and gas facilities today already employ a version of emissions reduction technology on a smaller scale. To tackle the global challenge, and enact real, world-changing progress on negative emissions technologies, we’ll require a full-systems, all-of-the-above, approach. As such, this is far bigger than any individual business or even industry. This is about building a province-wide culture, and the policy framework, required to propel breakthrough change in this space. A big idea So what exactly could this look like? One “big idea” that would match the spirit of this ambition: Alberta could become the global centre for excellence for negative emissions technologies, processes, and tracking and authentication, carving our own path so that while the world focuses on net-zero (i.e. remaining emissions are “cancelled out” by emissions removal), Alberta sets its sights on enabling net-negative (where remaining emissions are more than cancelled out by emissions removal). This could be game changing for the discussion around our natural resources as well. This big idea–or “moonshot”–would both signal to the world Alberta’s investment in the broader economic transformation taking place, and establish the province as a leader within it. Furthermore, policies that drive not just fewer emissions but net-negative emissions opens up a differentiating factor for Alberta as a destination for energy investment. This would anchor Alberta at the heart of Canada’s “living lab” for the next wave of technological advancement. What it will take While good policy will be essential, equally so will be our willingness, as a province, to be a little “nonsensical.” To define ourselves as entrepreneurs means we must embrace the other side of the coin–the discomfort, grit, and failure–required to make a crazy idea into a no-brainer solution. The first and most essential component of progress is to create the environment–physical spaces, political norms, and the ambitious spirit–necessary for big ideas to be raised, collaboration to be commonplace, and an endless loop of trial-and-error to be accepted. It is about making space for the big, bold, and risky–that very foundation upon which Alberta was, in many ways, built and defined. Second is speed. Building and improving upon negative emissions technologies should be tackled with the urgency of an election cycle but with the foresight of future generations. The clock is ticking. Ultimately, Alberta should be the place where nonsense ideas are made into reality so often that it becomes a part of the fabric of who we are as Albertans. Perhaps with this, ,when we look back one day on previous breakthroughs, we will have once again forgotten how crazy any of these big ideas once were. Alicia Planincic is an Economist at the Business Council of Alberta. She plays a crucial role in policy research and advocacy to make Alberta a better place. She brings experience in data analytics, a passion for effective prose, and a fresh perspective of economics. #Future_Economy #Regional_Pathways #Clean_Technologies #Culture_Shift #CCUS #International_Policy #Emissions_Removal_Technologies #2021

Alberta’s future: turning nonsense to common sense

Innovators . Entrepreneurial. Ambitious. This is how Albertans have long described themselves, a story often centred around our successful development of the oil sands, Alberta’s most consequential bet. But now the province is faced with a difficult question to reconcile: is this who we are or just who we were? This question will be answered one way or the other, whether we respond to it directly or not. Quite simply, some forces are bigger than Alberta. The question we should be asking...

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As members of the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative, we spend a lot of time thinking about the future (it’s right in the name!). One way of thinking about policy is as a stated direction for how we might collectively be in the future, alongside the boundaries and incentives that we think might help us get there. To carve out a successful path using policy, we try to imagine and understand what pitfalls and opportunities might be just over the horizon. To help us figure that out, we use models: technological adoption models, climate models, energy system models. Of course, that’s easier said than done. The last 18 months of pandemic policy-making have been a powerful lesson in both the fallibility of models and the challenges of interpreting them correctly and acting. Does that mean we should consign models and modelling to the waste bin? No! But we need to be thoughtful about the kinds of models we’re embracing and how we use them. First, it’s important to differentiate between two kinds of models at play in the climate and energy space. Most commonly when people think of models, they think of predictive models. These are models that aim to predict the trajectory of a set of factors. Typically, predictive models work better with physical systems (like the rolling of a ball down a hill, or the operation of a machine) than they do with sociotechnical systems. Given what we know about the inputs, outputs, and processes related to global climate, as well as the variety and robustness of the modelling that has evolved around it, we can feel fairly confident about the predictive quality of climate models. Energy system modelling, on the other hand, is much more closely bound up in a myriad of (often irrational) human decisions, from consumer behaviour to political movements to the decisions of financial elites. Some energy system modellers opt to look at the rate of tech adoption and improvement as the solution here. However, change in the technology space may not be linear: technologies may lurk beneath the surface for years before sudden changes in their affordability or uptake. For many technologies, the shape of the graph is a longer period of time in plateau, then sudden inflection points. Solar and wind are a great example here, where the rate of cost decline outstripped the consensus predictions; on the inverse, the decline of coal has outstripped predictions. How do we make sense of this unpredictability? Here’s where our other kind of model comes in: scenario modelling. Rather than attempt to predict the unpredictable, we instead look to models for a range of possible futures, or scenarios. Smart scenario work covers a wide range, including outlier, unlikely scenarios as well as a set of more-likely possibilities. There are two watch-outs we need to be careful to avoid. First, there’s a human cognitive short-cut that encourages us to assume that things will continue in the way that they have before, what we might call our “business as usual” scenario. It’s a common short-cut because it’s often the case! However, while business-as-usual is a useful starting place for scenario work, it can’t be our end point: we need to look at outlier signals and possibilities as well. The second pitfall we need to be aware of is playing “pick your favourite scenario”; it can be tempting to anchor on the scenarios that look best for our particular mix of assets and stakeholders. As planners and policy makers, working with a variety of scenarios enables us to put boundary markers around the decisions we’re considering, reckoning with a gradient of plausible and possible outcomes while avoiding these two cognitive traps. So, by predicting what makes sense to predict and leveraging scenarios for those things that are too complex or variable, what does that enable us to do? In industry, it allows decision-makers to hedge their bets, building a portfolio that covers the range of possible outcomes while considering the timing of emerging opportunities. For government, its utility is twofold, allowing governments to understand the potential impact of their policy choices, while also enabling policy-making that is more flexible and durable to external forces for a wider variety of stakeholders in a more diverse set of futures, encouraging the development of policies that enable adaptation rather than path dependence. It’s in the middle space between these two kinds of model-based decision-making that the EFPC aims to sit, with the goal of answering the question: how might we use the levers of policy to enable industry and citizens in Alberta to achieve good outcomes across a range of climate and energy futures? Models help us do that, with both greater confidence and a deeper appreciation for the risks and opportunities that might lie ahead. Dr. Sara Hastings Simon is Assistant Professor Department of Physics and Astronomy, and the School of Public Policy Director MSc in Sustainable Energy Development (SEDV). and Director MSc in Sustainable Energy Development. #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Regional_Pathways #Clean_Technologies #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #Modelling #Sustainable_Finance #2021

Harnessing possible futures for better policy outcomes

As members of the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative, we spend a lot of time thinking about the future (it’s right in the name!). One way of thinking about policy is as a stated direction for how we might collectively be in the future, alongside the boundaries and incentives that we think might help us get there. To carve out a successful path using policy, we try to imagine and understand what pitfalls and opportunities might be just over the horizon. To help us figure that out, we use...

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A just transition to net-zero won’t be easy and anyone who claims it will be is either kidding themselves or ignoring the complexities of this challenge. The truth is, net-zero by 2050 is a tall order. Pair that with the need to enable a just transition and there’s a challenge spanning whole new heights. But that’s not to say that creating a more inclusive and equitable net-zero future is out of reach. With government and business leaders getting ready to converge in Glasgow for the global climate conference, it is a relief to see that the majority of countries are committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Meanwhile, the Paris Agreement not only embedded net-zero as the target for 2050, it also included the concept of “just transition”: a shift to net-zero that is equitable, inclusive, and prosperous. In other words, we can’t leave anyone behind. This implies that how we achieve this challenge is about more than just technology or the right policies. It’s about people. With this in mind, a just transition must reflect the voices of those who will be impacted most. Why? Because, while ultimately everyone will be impacted by the transition to net-zero, some people are likely to be harder hit than others, including youth, women, BIPOC communities, and fossil fuel workers. For example, here in Canada, approximately 140,300 people were employed in Alberta’s upstream energy sector alone in 2017. In addition, an Indigenous worker is three times more likely than the average non-Indigenous worker to be employed in extractive industries. These communities will likely experience out-sized impacts as the world moves away from traditional resource extraction. Many of these same groups have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic and accompanying economic crisis. Without conscious intervention, these social inequities will likely be exacerbated even further by the transition to net-zero. The question is, how do we support a just transition while also accelerating the race to net-zero in Canada? The Government of Canada recently released its People-Centred Just Transition Discussion Paper, to which many companies and organizations across the country responded. Through numerous conversations with Fellows of the Energy Futures Lab, we came to a relatively simple conclusion: a top-down approach to deploying policy is a good start, but isn’t enough to enable a just transition. We are in a “yes, and” moment, where the urgency and complexity of the crisis calls for both government intervention and community-level engagement and policy co-creation. It’s essential for policymakers to hear directly from the individuals, communities, and industries who will be most impacted, and to understand their unique skill sets, needs, and value systems. Only then can we identify and co-create solutions and opportunities that will not only help these individuals survive the energy transition, but thrive in a net-zero economy. This means adopting an on-the-ground, community approach so that we go beyond the usual suspects and empower communities to co-create solutions that address their specific needs and issues. In addition, rather than spending time trying to achieve “strong social consensus,” as described in the proposed federal principles, it may be more effective to meet people where they are. A just transition is not solely a transition of “the willing.” More than two-thirds of Canadian fossil fuel workers are interested in jobs in a net-zero economy, 58% see themselves thriving in that economy, and nearly nine in 10 want training and upskilling for net-zero employment. To minimize harm while maximizing opportunities for as many as possible, an approach could be to create opportunities for these under-employed oil and gas workers while also designing social and economic safety nets for those who are struggling with the transition. For example, deploying both rapid upskilling programs and early retirement incentives. Direct funding for projects and programs that support workers won’t be enough to realize a just transition. New economic opportunities, enabled by supportive policy, are critical. Government can play an essential role in enabling investment opportunities that build upon our existing assets and infrastructure, as well as supporting the development of new opportunities that are aligned with net-zero ambitions. We have so many built-in advantages here in Canada, as a stable democracy with some of the most highly skilled workers in the world. Let’s not miss our moment. There’s a lot to think about. However, policymakers don’t need to do this thinking alone. By seeking out diverse community and industry perspectives, Canada will have a much higher chance of hitting something akin to a homerun. At the end of the day, we believe that decentralizing policy development through co-creation is an essential step towards enabling a truly just transition. It’s time our actions and policies reflect the voices of those who will be impacted most. Alison Cretney is the managing director of the Energy Futures Lab, a coalition of innovators working together to advance solutions to create an energy system that is ‘fit for the future.’ As a sustainability consultant, social innovator and former oil and gas engineer, Cretney has worked at the intersection of energy, environment and collaboration for nearly 20 years. Elizabeth Shirt is the managing director of GLOBE Series, which designs signature and client events that bring together the innovators and changemakers who are accelerating the clean economy. The conversation on how we enable a just transition to a net-zero future will continue at GLOBE Forum 2022 | February 15–17, 2022. #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Regional_Pathways #Workforce_Readiness #Alberta_Energy_Narrative_Hearts_and_Minds #2021 #Federal_Policy #Provincial_Policy #Sustainable_Finance

A just transition must reflect the voices of those who will be impacted most’

A just transition to net-zero won’t be easy and anyone who claims it will be is either kidding themselves or ignoring the complexities of this challenge. The truth is, net-zero by 2050 is a tall order. Pair that with the need to enable a just transition and there’s a challenge spanning whole new heights. But that’s not to say that creating a more inclusive and equitable net-zero future is out of reach. With government and business leaders getting ready to converge in Glasgow for the global...

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How the federal and Alberta governments can support investment in low-carbon activities that build on Alberta’s strengths Una Jefferson is a Research Associate at the Smart Prosperity Institute. She is a member of the working group for the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative. Albertans think their economy is too dependent on oil and gas, according to a 2020 poll. Albertan firms are already working on repurposing assets from Alberta’s hydrocarbon industry towards economic activities that are more competitive in a decarbonizing world, from lithium to geothermal energy to clean hydrogen. These assets — including workforce skills, infrastructure, intellectual property, and natural resources — could give Alberta a competitive edge in some of these new markets. The Energy Futures Policy Collaborative (EFPC), in which the Smart Prosperity Institute (SPI) is a research partner, has begun referring to this set of opportunities as future-fit hydrocarbons. The federal and provincial governments have helped to build up these assets. For example, Alberta has world-class infrastructure and expertise in carbon capture and storage (CCS) thanks to billions of dollars in public RD&D and financing support and the double TIER credits granted to some CCS projects. Even so, CCS is still only economically viable for a handful of projects that receive direct public support. This support needs to be paired with policies to drive down the cost of financing and running CCS projects and help them earn revenue. How can Alberta move from piecemeal support for specific projects to broad support for strategic low-carbon markets? What is missing is a framework for selecting and coordinating policies. SPI, as part of the EFPC, has published a framework to guide policymakers in designing a suite of policies to support investment in future-fit hydrocarbons. The private sector can’t do this alone Critics of past Alberta governments’ economic diversification efforts have argued that “if a project were economically viable […] the private sector would already have done it”. It is true that governments should avoid competing with the private sector in established markets. But markets for future-fit hydrocarbons are far from established. Markets don’t work without public assets like the rule of law, basic science, education, and a low level of risk around pricing and demand. Governments have the ongoing task of ensuring that this foundation exists for economic activities that are in the public interest. And right now, this foundation is incomplete for future-fit hydrocarbons. Take clean hydrogen as an example. Clean hydrogen suffers from an unfortunate quadruple whammy of characteristics that deter investors: it is a capital-intensive, early-stage, environmental technology that only makes economic sense when used by many people (or in large quantities). Private investors can’t capture all of the value associated with less climate change or more knowledge, because these benefits are also enjoyed by the public. And, like railroads or pipelines, hydrogen systems require considerable up-front capital and coordinated allocation of that capital. This is why Canadian governments have a long history of supporting railway and pipeline construction. Markets are great at incremental improvement, but they need government leadership for big, risky changes motivated by the long-term public interest. For example, Premier Lougheed began investing in exploiting Alberta’s oil sands against the advice of the oil industry, which preferred investments with more certain short-term returns. While the private sector is already experimenting with future-fit hydrocarbons, these markets will not develop without government support. To navigate the current economic and environmental crises, Albertans need government leadership with an eye on the entire province’s long-term needs. What does government leadership look like? Supporting investment in future-fit hydrocarbons will require more than a handful of incentives. Governments need to consider how technologies are developed, adopted, commercialized, and improved. SPI’s Clean Innovation Framework, which was developed through dozens of expert interviews, identifies four types of public policy needed to encourage investment in clean innovation: PUSH policies to spark new ideas and turn them into new technologies, processes, and business models PULL policies to develop early markets for innovations GROW policies to help firms commercialize innovations STRENGTHEN policies to help innovative firms thrive and encourage learning and collaboration SPI has adapted this framework for future-fit hydrocarbons in Alberta. The result is a framework intended to maximize the impact of scarce government resources through focused, technology-agnostic public policies and public-private collaboration. It recognizes that developing technology is only half the battle and devotes equal focus to adoption and use. Avoiding a boondoggle Markets are changing quickly as the world attempts to decarbonize, and it is not yet clear which technologies, processes, and business models will succeed. Governments should expect to support some failures in the pursuit of success: governments are helpful precisely because they can tolerate more risk than the private sector. But governments should design policies carefully to minimize the cost of failure. Firstly, they should avoid spreading their resources too thinly. The federal and Alberta governments do not have the resources to dabble in every clean technology. Doing clean hydrogen well, for example, would require substantial, focused public investment. Federal, provincial, municipal, and Indigenous governments need to perform strategic planning to decide whether clean hydrogen is a good match with existing assets, and coordinate their decisions and policies with each other. Second, they should lean into their strengths. Most governments do not have the specialized knowledge needed to identify commercially viable or useful projects. But they do have a high risk tolerance, deep pockets, and a mandate to identify and communicate long-term societal priorities. Governments should involve the private sector in decisions about how to allocate support and avoid competing with private investors, while filling in the gaps in private investment and providing stable signals through policies such as carbon prices and carbon intensity standards. Third, they should balance focus with agility. The ability to recognize and act on failure early may be the most important common feature of successful industrial and innovation policies. When supporting investment in clean hydrogen, for example, governments risk supporting lock-in of technologies that may prove to be too dirty, expensive, or unpopular. To avoid this, they should focus on outcomes such as life-cycle carbon intensity and prioritize investments that can be repurposed. If Alberta is to remain competitive, federal and provincial governments need to provide support for investment in low-carbon industries which build on Alberta’s strengths. But support policies will be ineffective and wasteful if they are not focused and coordinated. A marketplace framework can help governments rise to this challenge. #Future_Economy #Regional_Pathways #Clean_Technologies #Culture_Shift #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #2021 #Federal_Policy #Lithium_from_Brine #Geothermal_Energy #Hydrogen #Provincial_Policy

Support markets, not just one-off projects, to grow Alberta’s clean economy

How the federal and Alberta governments can support investment in low-carbon activities that build on Alberta’s strengths Una Jefferson is a Research Associate at the Smart Prosperity Institute. She is a member of the working group for the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative. Albertans think their economy is too dependent on oil and gas, according to a 2020 poll . Albertan firms are already working on repurposing assets from Alberta’s hydrocarbon industry towards economic activities that are...

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We are surrounded by technical achievements — often near-miraculous, even if they may get taken for granted. The electricity grid that delivers a safe, constant and predictable stream of on-demand energy. Communication systems that allow real-time conversations with people on the other side of the earth. Networks of food delivery that allows us to enjoy fresh, safe, and relatively inexpensive produce in all seasons. Each of these ‘miracles’ actually represents a complex system that came into being only through the concerted efforts of a broad range of actors. Underpinning that coordinated action is, more often than not, government policy. Now, we face a new set of challenges around energy transition, emissions reduction, and the ongoing wellbeing of our fellow human beings. Policy will be at the root of decisions made about what actions get taken in this brave new world. Policy can be used to shape behaviour: of consumers, of markets, of producers, of investors, of competing jurisdictions. It provides both a vision for the future and the set of rules to be followed in getting there. As such, it is the foundational piece that underlies decisions about the complex systems surrounding a successful energy transition. But how, exactly, does the government do that? What are the tools at its disposal? And what actions can a group such as the EFPC request the government take? To answer this question, we developed a list of government policy levers that could be useful as part of the energy transition, and specifically in helping drive investment into innovation and infrastructure: Vision: By providing vision and direction at a high level through strategies, goals, targets, or roadmaps, government can show enduring support and provide predictability and stability. The recently published federal hydrogen strategy and the small modular reactor (SMR) roadmap are clear examples. Economic tools: The government is in a unique position to direct fiscal resources — its own or that of others — towards areas where it wants to incentivize development. Economic tools include direct financial support, procurement (the federal government alone procures over $20 billion per year of goods and services), fiscal policy measures, and making capital available to entrepreneurs — such as through the Canada Infrastructure Bank. Asset planning: The government can use its power to influence the development and deployment of different classes of assets, including people, physical infrastructure, and natural assets. In its Healthy Environment, Healthy Economy plan published in December 2020, the federal government promised to conduct the first-ever national infrastructure assessment to identify needs and priorities for the supportive assets and infrastructure that will underlie the energy transition. Regulatory approaches: These are the rules created by government that individuals and organizations — companies, investors, even the government itself — must abide by. They include regulation of capital markets and regulation of GHG emissions, but also land use regulations, royalty schemes, and other rules that shape market and policy agendas. Market development: Domestic and international market receptivity can be shaped by government actions and agreements, such as international trade agreements, export market development, and creating opportunities to stimulate domestic demand for certain products. Quality assurance: There is a role for government in boosting confidence in the quality and acceptability of products and technologies. These may come in the form of emissions standards (such as methane emissions standards), performance standards (such as for automobiles), or endorsement of specific certification schemes (as with Canada’s several forestry performance management certification options). Finally, there are a number of policy levers that don’t fall neatly into the categories above, including research and commercial collaboration, collecting and disseminating data and information, and convening stakeholders. These levers each have long histories of success in fostering innovation and investment, in the energy sector and beyond. With a clear sense of what options might look like, our task in the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative is a complex but essential one: to determine which levers to pull when, how hard to pull, and who should be operating those levers. To do this, we’re making sure we think both deeply and broadly about how this metaphorical machine might fit together, considering which unintended gears a given lever might turn if we aren’t careful and what unwanted outputs our machine might produce, but also which levers in combination might multiply the force we apply, delivering dividends that ripple across the system. #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #Sustainable_Finance #Provincial_Policy #2021

Policy Levers and the Energy Transition

We are surrounded by technical achievements — often near-miraculous, even if they may get taken for granted. The electricity grid that delivers a safe, constant and predictable stream of on-demand energy. Communication systems that allow real-time conversations with people on the other side of the earth. Networks of food delivery that allows us to enjoy fresh, safe, and relatively inexpensive produce in all seasons. Each of these ‘miracles’ actually represents a complex system that came into...

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This post is part 3 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham (Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) Italian writer and philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli knew a thing or two about power, and his observations have guided politicians for hundreds of years. And while his writings have been used by those seeking to protect or preserve their standing, he had plenty to say to those who are on the side of change and progress. “It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things,” Machiavelli wrote in The Prince. “Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.” You’d be hard pressed to find a better description of the political landscape in 2021, and that’s particularly true when it comes to the energy transition and the delicate pivot from higher-carbon energy to lower-carbon solutions. “What we’re trying to do is make something happen,” says NEI Investments’ Jamie Bonham, “and there is no guarantee of success here.” But as Scotiabank sustainability expert Patrycja Drainville says, this evolutionary process that’s currently underway in the oil and gas industry isn’t completely new. After all, one of Alberta’s other major industries went through a similar experience two decades ago. “When I think about what’s happening to our industry, a good parallel is the forestry sector 20 years ago, when they were the poster child for all these different ENGO campaigns,” she says. Those campaigns created pressure, and that pressure pushed some of the companies to adapt and improve. You could call it “survival of the cleanest” — and the forestry industry is living proof that many companies can survive. “We use paper still, and we do so much shipping with boxes. But those recycling practices emerged, and they have set a high standard for operating practices around forestry,” Drainville says. “So I think there are some very strong parallels there. The bullseye will keep moving around, and it’s our turn. But I think we can get to a place where the world feels comfortable, and we’re producing a much better product.” Capitalism, in other words, will do the work of sorting the best performers from the laggards — work that will take on growing importance and prominence as the price of carbon continues to rise. “They’ll just be a much higher standard of operating, and there will be a bit of a cleanup of the companies that just can’t meet that,” she says. “That’s a healthy thing, really.” And while it might be tempting for some people to deprive the oil and gas industry of the capital and other financial resources it needs to do that cleanup, that may only slow the progress they want to see. “I would rather see us try to leverage it into something positive, instead of just tearing it down and building something new elsewhere,” Bonham says. Drainville, who now works for one of the major Canadian financial institutions (Scotiabank) that her former company (Suncor Energy) and others like it will depend on, agrees with that assessment. “They get really caught in the idea of supporting the oil and gas sector, and they pull back when it’s actually the sector that’s doing a lot of the changing that we need. But every organization has to embrace the change first, and then move fast, if we’re going to meet our emissions target.” In other words, says The Cooperators’ Chad Park, the true acts of climate leadership aren’t ones that focus on divestment and disengagement. Instead, they’re in the messy middle — where capital can most effectively motivate companies to move in the right direction. “The whole financial industry has thrown its whole weight into this,” Bonham says, “and I think it will accelerate a lot of the change.” Or, as Park says, “in my view, climate leadership in investing should be less about what an investor won’t do with their money and more about what they will do.” #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Regional_Pathways #Clean_Technologies #Sustainable_Finance #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #2021

Survival of the Cleanest: Why low-carbon can equal high-success for Alberta’s energy sector

This post is part 3 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham (Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) Italian writer and philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli knew a thing or two about power, and his observations have guided politicians for hundreds...

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Transition is a sticky word for a lot of people. Add “net-zero” or “pipeline” to the mix and you might even spark a wave of public passion. But emotions are always anchored in something and those relating to Alberta’s energy transition carry no exception. Sure, through the years we’ve talked about net-zero by 2050 but these conversations have often carried an element of speculation. A nice theory, one might say, but how will we get there? While the answer to this question is neither simple nor obvious, the events of last week offer a little insight into the nature of energy transition. First, we celebrated as the province’s largest oil sands producers came together behind a shared vision for a net-zero future. Then, we celebrated some more with the announcement of a possible $1.3 billion investment into a net-zero hydrogen energy complex just east of Edmonton. It appeared things were really coming together. We felt on track. Then, in the wake of a few very big wins, a heavy steel-toed boot landed in our midst with a resounding thump. The Keystone XL pipeline breathed its last breaths somewhere in southeastern Alberta and a myriad of emotions quickly swept across the province. We continue to lament for different reasons, sure… Jobs will be lost, the fate of Alberta’s oil and gas industry grows murkier, and the loss of a $1.3 billion investment is far from digestible. But here’s the thing: no one said energy transition would be easy. No one claimed there wouldn’t be losses- even big ones- or that there wouldn’t be fear and uncertainty. It may be human nature to crave stability, but stability doesn’t always entail a sense of certainty. We couldn’t know for sure how Keystone XL would play out, in the same way that we cannot know for sure how a hydrogen economy will unfold. Still, we place bets knowing that reward entails risk. However, while we can’t predict the future, we can make decisions with the end in mind. At the Energy Futures Lab, a coalition of Alberta innovators focused on energy transition, we lean on vision-driven innovation to help us uncover solutions for our energy future. But energy transition is about more than just innovation. It’s something that impacts each of us in different ways. This week, we not only witnessed, but also felt what it means to navigate energy transition. It means celebrating big wins while collectively acknowledging and feeling big losses. And we need to do this together. As the energy transition accelerates, weeks like last week will become all the more common. We’ll see more big announcements, more wins and losses. This means that some days will be more hope-filled than others and to get through the tougher times, we’ll need to remain pragmatic. We’ll need to remember what’s at stake and to ensure that we leave no one behind. Energy transition entails a collective effort. It’s not for a select few to grieve the loss of Keystone while others race full-fledged towards a hydrogen economy. No, it reflects a time for us to come together as a province and accept that energy transition will never be easy. But then again, easy is not what we’re after. #Corporate_Policy #EFL_Vision #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Pipelines #2021

Big wins and big losses will continue shaping Alberta’s energy transition

Transition is a sticky word for a lot of people. Add “net-zero” or “pipeline” to the mix and you might even spark a wave of public passion. But emotions are always anchored in something and those relating to Alberta’s energy transition carry no exception. Sure, through the years we’ve talked about net-zero by 2050 but these conversations have often carried an element of speculation. A nice theory, one might say, but how will we get there? While the answer to this question is neither simple...

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This post is part 2 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham (Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) As vaccines pour in across the developed world, jobs are coming back by the thousands to industries and sectors that were hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. There are, however, a few notable exceptions, and one of the most notable of all is the oil and gas industry. While prices have recovered to where they were pre-pandemic, the work — and the workers — have not. And as a recent report from Deloitte suggested, many of them may be gone forever as the world transitions towards lower-carbon sources of energy. That transition is irreversible, regardless of whether some people want to see it happen or not. “Canada is too small,” NEI Investments’ Jamie Bonham says. “Even if we wanted to be absolutely obstructionist, it will do nothing to stop this transition from happening. Once you have that context, you can start to think about resilience to it.” That’s where future-fit hydrocarbons can, and should, play a major role. After all, we can’t assume that everyone who currently works in the oil and gas industry will be able to transition easily — or even at all — to careers in renewables and green energy. And while governments can paper that over with support programs aimed at re-training and re-skilling, that’s not going to be an appetizing prospect for many. But with future-fit hydrocarbons, we get the best of both worlds: a bridge to a lower-carbon economy, and an economic path that honours the skills and knowledge of today’s workers. Scotiabank sustainability expert Patrycja Drainville is a big fan of the idea. “I love the future-fit concept, because I think it still indicates that the commodity as it is, and as it exists today, is a relevant commodity. What I think people want is for there to be some greater responsibility around it as it relates to what the customer wants.” And while experts will disagree on exactly when global demand for oil will peak, and how quickly it will decline on the other side of that apex, there is no question that oil will be used in substantial quantities for decades to come. By adding new uses for Alberta’s bitumen reserves, companies and governments can help lengthen the transition runway — and help Alberta’s oil sands companies take flight from it. “Those are the companies that are going to be able to attract this kind of climate-concerned investing,” says The Co-operators’ Chad Park. “But they need a little bit of support there.” That support could help the hundreds of thousands of Albertans with skills and expertise in the existing energy sector put them to work on building the new one. “We have so much to work with — it’s building from something, as opposed to building something new. And to me, that’s the most cogent argument for the future-fit hydrocarbons — the fact that we don’t have to recreate the wheel entirely here,” Bonham says. “We have a lot in place that’s going to be really critical to what we need to achieve.” There’s no better example of how today’s energy sector can help build an important bridge to tomorrow’s than with carbon capture and storage technologies. For companies, it allows them to experiment in areas where they’re already comfortable, and add value to their existing operations. Witness the recent announcement by Advantage Oil & Gas that it has developed what it calls “breakthrough carbon capture and storage technology capable of commercial profitability at a carbon price below CDN$50/tonne.” That technology will be applied at its gas plant near Grande Prairie and put into service by March 2022, but the company thinks it can be applied to a much wider range of industries. “The Modular Carbon Capture and Storage (“MCCS”) technology can be retrofitted to most point-source industrial emissions, including sectors that are difficult to decarbonize like power generation, blue hydrogen, LNG, oil and gas processing, and production of cement and steel,” it said in its press release. Advantage’s announcement is just the kind of thing that can help shift perceptions about the role that today’s oil and gas industry can and should play in helping build the energy system of the future. “The kind of technologies and solutions we’re trying to create here are going to go well beyond the oil and gas industry,” Drainville says. “I think it would be short-sighted to see it as just a lifeline for a single industry.” But in order for more of this sort of “practice” to happen, governments will have to find a way to get on the same page. “We’re still disagreeing about that,” she says. “Governments need to all get on board, and move faster before other economies leap-frog Canada.” If they do, many of the jobs that have been permanently lost in traditional oil and gas can be replaced by new ones. But the longer those governments wait, the harder it will be for them to build public support for the energy transition. And if they can’t do that, they risk missing out on one of the biggest new economic opportunities of the century. This post is part 2 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville(Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park(Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham(Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Sustainable_Finance #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #2021 #CCUS #FutureFit_Hydrocarbons

Why Future Fit Hydrocarbons are the bridge to a better future

This post is part 2 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham (Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) As vaccines pour in across the developed world, jobs are coming back by the thousands to industries and sectors that were hit hard by the...

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This post is part 1 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham (Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) If there was ever any doubt that net-zero finance was the way of the future, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney cleared it up in a March 29th tweet. “Huge announcement today that the core of the global asset management industry, managing over $32 trillion in assets, is committing to addressing climate change [and] delivering the goals of the Paris Agreement.” When you start talking about that many trillions of dollars, even the most ardent skeptic is forced to sit up and start listening. Carney’s certainly not the first person to say this out loud, mind you. But his comments are just part of a growing conversation that has captivated the global financial community, as well as industries like Canada’s energy sector that depend on it to help fund their operations. “The thing I wish more people really grasped is how significant and massive the drive towards climate-concerned investing is,” says Chad Park, the vice president of sustainability and citizenship with The Cooperators. “There could be opportunity in that for Alberta, if we play our cards right.” And make no mistake: Alberta has a good hand, especially when it comes to so-called “future-fit hydrocarbons”. Its bitumen can be put to work in any number of new applications, from carbon fibre to asphalt and graphene, and these could be multi-billion dollar markets in the very near future. Its natural gas, meanwhile, can be used to create some of the most economically competitive blue hydrogen — that is, hydrogen produced using natural gas and carbon capture and sequestration technology — in the world. But, Park says, that will require everyone to put more of their chips into the middle first. “We need to signal our alignment with the net-zero emissions goal, because that’s a first principle. All of these investors are trying to align their portfolios with a 1.5 degree future, and they’re not just doing it to showcase their virtue, although there’s some of that. They’re also doing it because of the impact finance can have on achieving the goal and because they think there’s money to be made in the transition.” Before she took a new job at Scotiabank, Patrycja Drainville spent the last decade working in the energy sector on the increasingly busy intersection between sustainability and finance. And while she says the conversation about ESG (environment, sustainability, and governance) concerns used to be confined to select parts of her organization, it has now reached centre stage. “What I think has changed now is that everyone — every company, every government — has this very clear mandate to be part of climate action.” In the energy sector, that mandate clearly includes reducing emissions, and most of the large companies operating in it have made some sort of commitment to reaching net-zero emissions in the future. Those commitments are coming from the top, too. “Carbon risk has never really been accounted for at the board level until maybe two or three years ago,” Drainville says. “It’s only now at the right level of the organization, to start really making meaningful change.” But while she’s optimistic about the energy sector’s ability to rise to this challenge, she’s also clear that this transformation won’t happen overnight. “These companies can’t flip their business models on their head overnight,” Drainville says. “There’s some patient capital that’s required to get us through this change.” That’s where people like Jamie Bonham, the director of corporate engagement with NEI Investments, come in. The recent surge in oil prices of their COVID-driven lows has sparked a renewed sense of optimism in the energy sector, but Bonham says that this boom won’t be like any of the other ones that came before it. In the past, the choice faced by companies was simple: pay out their surging cash flows to investors, or invest them back into the ground in order to grow. Now, with growth circumscribed by both looming concerns about peaking demand and the increasingly heavy hand of capital markets, they face a much different one. “It’s a real inflection point here, because knowing investors, they’re going to be pushing for those dividends and getting that money back in their pockets. That’s fine, but it’s not the model that’s going to get you to long-term success. So it’s tough for companies right now to make the case to put that money into something else — which is what they need to do.” In order for them to do it, Bonham says, they need to know that the policies in place today won’t get undermined tomorrow. “If we could agree on the basic tenets of it, and say these fundamental tenets like the price on carbon are not going to change, nor is the ambition and targets that we set, then that would be a platform they could build these projects on, knowing it makes sense.” They’re also still risking a journey into the so-called valley of death, where good ideas can often get tripped up before they mature into profitable businesses. “To get from here to there takes a bit of a leap of faith. I think there’s a number of investors out there who are ready for this opportunity. We just have to create it.” This post is part 1 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank),Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham(Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments). #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Sustainable_Finance #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #2021

Capital Concerns: Why big business is driving the shift towards lower-carbon capitalism (and why Alberta can be a part of it)

This post is part 1 of 3 exploring sustainable finance, bringing together the perspectives of three of our Core Working Group members: Patrycja Drainville (Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, Scotiabank), Chad Park (Vice President, Sustainability & Citizenship, The Cooperators), and Jamie Bonham (Director of Corporate Engagement, NEI Investments) If there was ever any doubt that net-zero finance was the way of the future, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney...

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We’re often told that we need to do a better job of telling our stories. There are plenty of narrative opportunities to be explored within the energy sector and yet, despite an emerging consensus around the importance of storytelling, it’s often difficult to identify and breathe life into the stories that shape our companies, technologies or relationships with energy. So in this post, I’ll explore a few practical approaches to storytelling that we can draw on to spark curiosity, empathy and action within Canada’s energy sector. For starters, developing a compelling story is no easy task. In fact, a writer must navigate difficult terrain in a way that sometimes parallels how energy companies approach resource development. On its own, the idea for a story is no more valuable than sunlight, heat from the earth’s core or a formation containing natural gas. Rather, the idea contains potential; there’s an inherent value, a spark that can be harnessed and transformed into something powerful. It is the storyteller’s job to recognize this potential and find ways to make use of it. As part of this process, we need to investigate the landscape, assess potential returns on investment and develop blueprints. In other words, we need to scope the idea, determine its value and storyboard our work before any shovels hit the ground. This work can begin with an initial assessment. Assess how “story worthy” an idea is by asking a few pointed questions: How might I transform this information in a way that’s useful? How will the energy I input into the work compare with the output? What are the consequences of telling or not telling this story? Who will benefit and/or suffer from the telling of this story? Where does this story fit into the broader landscape? Everywhere we turn, there are trace elements pointing to the existence of characters, dialogues and settings. So while anything can be turned into a story, the value of this initial assessment lies in its ability to help us determine whether an idea can be turned into a really good and impactful story. Once we’ve deemed an idea “story worthy,” we can move forward into a development phase. In the rest of this post, you’ll find some practical approaches to storytelling that you can draw on as you develop your idea. To help explain these approaches, I’ve journeyed down a somewhat nostalgic path to draw on wisdom captured in the fable of The Three Little Pigs and the Big Bad Wolf. Position your work contextually It’s common for people to do everything in their power to “prove” the side of a story that best aligns with their intentions. For example, it might be tempting to offer hope by way of omitting a reference to potential challenges. Or perhaps there’s a desire to discredit a particular technology, only to avoid discussing viable alternatives. This can result in cherry-picking at its finest. If your story truly has legs, then positioning it within a broader (and honest) context should only add value. Moral of the story: If the big, bad wolf can blow your story over in just one breath, you’d best lay a more solid foundation. People care about other people At the end of the day, while new technologies are fascinating and worthy of description, a story is a place to foster connection and one of the most effective ways to do this is by focusing on the people around whom the story revolves. For example, it’s much easier to understand and relate to a technology if you first understand who created it, why they created it and how it’s had a transformative effect on that person or their community. You can step into their shoes and view this technology from their perspective, from the perspective of another being with whom you share commonality. Moral of the story: While the building materials selected by the three little pigs certainly played a central role in shaping this infamous kid’s story, we’re more interested in the pigs themselves and the ways in which their lives are impacted by their construction choices. Focusing solely on the quality of building materials or the structural integrity of each home rather than the pigs themselves would never have had the same impact. Anchor visions for the future within recognizable timelines There’s a reason most futuristic stories focus on things like flying cars and space travel. While we have a certain degree of influence over the future, most of the time, the future seems a faraway place yet to be defined. But there is an interesting tension to explore between our vision for the future and our current reality. We can’t simply place all of our hopes, dreams and aspirations solely in the context of the future, and yet to incite change, we also require a sense of direction. This is why anchoring a vision within today’s context is so helpful: it helps bridge the gap between today’s world and tomorrow’s. For example, a futuristic hydrogen economy might strike some as belonging to an ideal future, but if it remains difficult for people to see how we’ll get there, the idea can remain dreamlike, utopian or even hopeless. If we can show how today’s resources, investments and workforce have the potential to unlock these opportunities, the story begins to depict a future worth striving for. Moral of the story: Because we bore witness to the pigs’ construction efforts, we can better understand how and why the eldest pig was able to live “happily ever after.” The pig’s future appears secure because of the decisions it made in the present. As such, we are inclined to believe in the pig’s happy future, understanding that this future was only made possible by his current efforts. Involve the community As professionals working within the energy system, our networks will play an important role in facilitating the global energy transition. Nevertheless, we can’t undertake this endeavor alone. Rather, we can engage people from other professions to assist us in creating our energy future. We can seek out artists, writers, actors, videographers and other skilled creatives to support our efforts. Sometimes we’ve got the idea for a good story, but there’s someone else better suited for its execution. Moral of the story: The first two pigs knew they wanted to build comfortable homes but lacked the required expertise to account for the homes’ structural integrity. If we want to have a lasting impact, sometimes the best thing we can do is to seek support from those who are better equipped than we are. Slow down and give yourself permission to write with care It’s easy to get caught up in content creation. We’re expected to produce and share stories with the media and our networks, encouraging many of us to rush creative processes. As a result, we often see “quick hit” pieces that only present one side of a complex, multi-dimensional story. If we’re truly committed to good storytelling, then we need to slow down and take the time to write stories that do justice to the information we’re sharing. Moral of the story: While transporting loads of brick might be more tiresome for a little pig, the resulting house will be much stronger than one made of straw. If we want great outcomes, sometimes we need to take a harder, more time-consuming route. Strike a balance between hope and realism Hopeful narratives are highly desirable, both for the writer and reader. But while it’s important to offer hope and inspiration, serving up overly optimistic accounts can also result in stories that lose people’s attention. They can seem less credible and driven by bias. This means that it’s our job to offer hope within realistic parameters. Moral of the story: The story of the three little pigs would have been very different if we’d focused solely on the wolf’s failed attempts to blow down the eldest pig’s brick house. Exposure to all three of the wolf’s attempts gives us the information we need to make sense of his true potential. #Culture_Shift #Alberta_Energy_Narrative_Hearts_and_Minds #2021

Practical Approaches to Storytelling: A Guide for Energy Professionals

We’re often told that we need to do a better job of telling our stories. There are plenty of narrative opportunities to be explored within the energy sector and yet, despite an emerging consensus around the importance of storytelling, it’s often difficult to identify and breathe life into the stories that shape our companies, technologies or relationships with energy. So in this post, I’ll explore a few practical approaches to storytelling that we can draw on to spark curiosity, empathy...

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Alberta’s hydrocarbon sector faced an uncertain future in a world moving towards lower-carbon energy before the pandemic, with existing trends accelerating since March 2020. This uncertainty towards the future of the sector offers both risks and opportunities. The province’s rich natural resource wealth and highly skilled workforce have potential to capture a growing share of the clean technology market, and play a pivotal role in reaching climate targets. In order for Alberta’s oil and gas sector to play a significant role in advancing either objective, it must first address its challenge in attracting private capital. In order to do that, the province will need to advance projects that are attractive to investors. Recently, a range of standards have emerged that are used by investors to evaluate attractiveness, with criteria going beyond traditional financial returns. Investors increasingly care about progress towards climate targets, preventing environmental degradation, and taking a more fulsome view of the costs or investment required to realize an investment opportunity. A new policy brief by the Smart Prosperity Institute, as part of the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative hosted by the Energy Futures Lab, conducted an evaluation of some of these criteria and standards. This evaluation seeks to answer a specific question: What makes an investment in future-fit hydrocarbons attractive to decision-makers? This work will help provincial stakeholders identify what criteria are used to assess their performance and attractiveness to decision-makers, ensuring they can advance projects that meet those criteria. Being graded on a curve The future is an uncertain place. Investors, policymakers, and academics are increasingly trying to make it less so. This group of stakeholders, collectively referred to as decision-makers, are all thinking about which investments align with the future they (or the Boards and citizens to whom they are beholden) want to live in. These definitions of future fitness have progressed into the evaluation and assessment stage. Decision-makers globally are increasingly using established criteria to evaluate the future-fitness of investment opportunities, including investment frameworks, transition taxonomies, and transition pathways. Importantly, these criteria are based on different sets of concerns than investors have had in previous decades. As efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts grow in ambition to match the scale of the challenge, investors are growing increasingly concerned about the risks of stranded assets and maintaining social license to operate. This concern has shifted into action, with quantifiable assessment criteria and performance metrics being developed to minimize risk and measure performance in translating historic principles into current and future practices. Any region or government wanting to attract private capital is aware of these changes. However, while a new investment framework or taxonomy pops up on a seemingly monthly basis, it is not always clear which criteria are emerging as areas of consensus across disciplines and frameworks. Yet these areas of emergent consensus matter a great deal: If Alberta wants to attract capital and support from a broad array of decision-makers, it will need to ensure the projects it advances are attractive based on the criteria they are using. Better identifying these areas of emergent consensus, in turn, can inform how the province wants to define future-fitness in its own right. A definition that aligns with that of decision-makers whose capital is desired could prove catalytic in driving greater investment into provincial opportunities, and could be substantiated by adding Made-in-Alberta criteria that advanced the province’s own goals as well. To support this discussion, Smart Prosperity is conducting analysis to identify what criteria have emerged as implicit areas of consensus between different types of decision-makers internationally, and has identified three questions that virtually all stakeholders ask when evaluating future-fitness: 1. Does a project reduce absolute emissions in line with achieving science-based targets? The primary metric being used to assess environmental performance is not whether emissions are reduced, but whether absolute emissions decline at a rate aligned with global achievement of science-based targets set by international bodies. Unless improvements in carbon intensity or efficiency improvements can demonstrate alignment with science-based international targets, they are not likely to meet this standard. 2. How robust is a project against potential futures? Robustness across potential futures is the primary lens through which investors assess risk, and policymakers and academic assess attractiveness in a low-carbon future. The primary variable investors use to stress-test projects is how much risk of asset stranding accompanies an investment across futures with different rates of decarbonization. The more aligned an investment is with a zero emissions future, the more robustness (and less risk) it offers to a portfolio. 3. What level of specialized infrastructure is required to realize this investment opportunity? Frameworks and taxonomies stress that evaluating the amount of specialized infrastructure required to commercialize a given investment is critical to accurately assessing risk. The less new specialized infrastructure that is required to realize an opportunity, the more likely that commercialization can occur rapidly. If new specialized infrastructure is required at scale, indications of high levels of government support can also serve to reduce risk. Each of these three questions emerges almost uniformly across decision-maker frameworks, taxonomies and pathways discussions. This highlights the need for a given project that credibly respond to all three question if it wants to be considered attractive by a wide range of stakeholders making or influencing investment decisions. Alberta needs to be net-zero aligned if it wants to attract capital Investors want evidence that projects are aligned with a zero, or net-zero, emissions future within the upcoming decades, that a given project is robust across a range of decarbonization scenarios, and that the costs of new infrastructure are being appropriately considered. If those three criteria are not met, then capital will go towards opportunities that can credibly answer these questions. It’s that simple: If a project wants to attract private capital, it needs to score well on the criteria being used by decision-makers. If not, the task is made more difficult. Any Made-In-Alberta definition of future-fitness will need to keep these criteria in mind, since attracting capital is ultimately required to drive the prosperity stakeholders seek to achieve. For a deeper dive into this topic, read the policy brief Evaluating future fitness: What matters to decision-makers when considering whether a hydrocarbon investment is future fit?. #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #FutureFit_Hydrocarbons #Hydrogen #Rooftop_Solar #Commercial_Solar #Commercial_Wind #Batteries #CCUS #Advanced_Materials #Bitumen_Beyond_Combustion #2021 #Sustainable_Finance

What do decision-makers care about when investing in future-fit hydrocarbons?

Alberta’s hydrocarbon sector faced an uncertain future in a world moving towards lower-carbon energy before the pandemic, with existing trends accelerating since March 2020. This uncertainty towards the future of the sector offers both risks and opportunities. The province’s rich natural resource wealth and highly skilled workforce have potential to capture a growing share of the clean technology market, and play a pivotal role in reaching climate targets. In order for Alberta’s oil and gas...

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Planning for the future is complicated. We don’t know for sure what the future will look like. That means — and forgive me for being a little nerdy here — defining “future fitness” is a probabilistic question: we have to assess “fitness” across a range of possible futures. At the same time, the future also isn’t entirely out of our control. Policy choices we make now can influence which futures are more (or less) likely to come to pass. Sound complicated? A new report from the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices on net zero pathways for Canada can help us navigate this complexity by providing a little foresight on what 2050 might look like — and how hydrocarbons might fit into that future. A net zero Canada Let’s start with Canada’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to “net zero” by 2050 (i.e., Canada removes as many emissions from the atmosphere as it contributes). Canada isn’t alone in this commitment: multiple countries, provinces, cities, and firms are signing on to net zero as part of serious efforts to radically curb emissions within the next few decades. In general, a global shift to net zero is consistent with what climate science tells us we need to avoid the worst impacts of a changing climate. So, what does a net zero Canada look like? The report explores more than 60 scenarios, each of which achieves net zero emissions by 2050. Multiple possible net zero energy systems emerge from that analysis. Yet each system faces some big hurdles to taking hold and becoming reality. Some factors Alberta can affect via policy choices. Others depend on international markets and are outside its control. Below, I’m going to explore two very different energy systems that emerge from our analysis to illustrate the wide range of possible outcomes for the economy, and for hydrocarbons in particular. An electricity + hydrogen net zero future One possible net zero future for Canada strongly relies on emissions-free electricity and hydrogen. Massive scale-up of various sources of clean electricity can drive electrification of transportation (electric vehicles) and buildings (heat pumps). Meanwhile hydrogen can be used in heavy industry and other applications that are tricky to electrify. This future isn’t a guarantee. It would require big buildouts of electricity transmission infrastructure. Unless electricity storage become significantly cheaper, it might require grid interties linking intermittent renewables in Alberta and Saskatchewan with on-demand hydroelectricity in Manitoba or BC. Enhanced hydrogen infrastructure — from pipelines to production facilities — would likewise be required. Costs of making blue or green hydrogen must decline significantly. So how do hydrocarbons fit into this future? Critically, oil and gas have largely been replaced with zero carbon fuels. That’s true in Canada, but also likely internationally as well; global scale-up of electricity and hydrogen technologies is probably the key to driving costs down through “learning by doing.” That means that global demand for fossil fuels could decline dramatically, and with it, domestic production and the economic engine of growth it has historically provided. Yet “future-fit hydrocarbons” could go beyond traditional notions of fossil fuels. Zero-emissions hydrogen can be made from natural gas using carbon capture and storage, as well as other, emerging approaches. A range of non-combustion products could be made from Alberta’s hydrocarbon resources. Geothermal electricity might not be a hydrocarbon product, but it could directly leverage hydrocarbon industry expertise and capacity to contribute much-needed clean electricity supply. A fossil fuel + carbon removal net zero future A very different net zero future, on the other hand, sees ongoing global consumption of fossil fuels. That future only exists under very specific circumstances. Significant progress on upstream methane emissions and widespread use of advanced carbon capture and negative emissions technologies dramatically reduces emissions from producing oil and gas. And huge scale-up of carbon removal offsets emissions that come from consuming those fuels. Canadian hydrocarbon industries can play an interesting role in such a future. The oil and gas sector continues to drive economic activity. Moreover, Alberta’s geology gives it unique opportunities to permanently store GHG emissions. Depending on the national and international policy frameworks that emerge to support carbon removal, Alberta might even have the potential to drive deep net negative emissions, by removing and storing carbon in return for valuable emissions trading credits. Yet this pathway is also far from certain. It likely only comes to pass if carbon removal technologies dramatically decrease in costs, and both removal and carbon capture and storage dramatically scale up, everywhere. That’s the only way that long-term demand (and international market prices) for oil and gas stay high, supporting sustained production in Canada (while also achieving net zero). Yet other countries, including the United States, increasingly appear to be pushing toward electrification. Managing uncertainty Planning — and policy-making — in the face of uncertainty is tricky business. Which outcomes are more likely? Which are more desirable? What levers does Alberta have to affect outcomes? A fossil fuel and carbon removal world might seem appealing to oil and gas incumbents. Yet that future is only one of many possible outcomes and, in fact, faces multiple hurdles. Planning only for that future is putting all of Alberta’s eggs in one basket. Instead, solutions should be robust across the range of potential futures. Breakthroughs in cost-effective carbon removal and storage techniques, for example, will be valuable no matter which path Alberta, Canada, and the world ultimately walk. That doesn’t mean they’re all that Alberta needs. Other net zero opportunities can similarly build on existing capacity, infrastructure, and expertise. We don’t know what a net zero world looks like. But that doesn’t mean we can’t start planning for it. #Future_Economy #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #FutureFit_Hydrocarbons #Electricity #Hydrogen #Rooftop_Solar #Commercial_Solar #Commercial_Wind #Batteries #CCUS #Advanced_Materials #Bitumen_Beyond_Combustion #2021

A closer look at “future-fit”

Planning for the future is complicated. We don’t know for sure what the future will look like. That means — and forgive me for being a little nerdy here — defining “future fitness” is a probabilistic question: we have to assess “fitness” across a range of possible futures. At the same time, the future also isn’t entirely out of our control. Policy choices we make now can influence which futures are more (or less) likely to come to pass. Sound complicated? A new report from the Canadian...

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Around the world, countries, corporations, and people are picking up the call for a net-zero future. This global rallying cry is highlighting that we need to do more to reach a lower emissions future and we need to do it at an exponential pace. We cannot close the gap between our reality today, and our aspirations for what is possible, without developing and deploying technologies that both manage our greenhouse gas emissions and add value to our economy. The transition to a lower emissions world can’t happen with the flick of a switch. It will require significant work and investment across our economy and across timeframes. The speed of reaching decarbonization goals will depend on the availability of mature technology and the ability to scale supply chains. So, how might we accelerate the pace of innovation and deployment of new technologies across all sectors to take advantage of the tremendous momentum that exists in a world that has been turned upside down? We need smart investment. To remain competitive in today’s economy, we need to invest in our existing energy systems to ensure they are as efficient and environmentally responsible as possible. And, looking forward, if Alberta is going to build off its historic strengths as an energy producer, we need to invest in the energy systems of tomorrow that have a place in an increasingly carbon-constrained world. It’s not an either-or scenario — we need to do both. We need a strong understanding of the possible pathways ahead of us, so that industry can develop sound business plans that lay out a future that is attractive to the flow of capital, and so that collaboration and alignment across the innovation ecosystem can flourish. We need governments to send appropriate and consistent policy and regulatory signals to set the foundation for net-zero and shape the incentives for the transition. Increasing alignment and coordination across levels of government will only help to create an environment where taking risks and innovating are easier to do. None of these elements on their own are enough. We will need all components in place for us to succeed. You’ve likely heard the phrase, “there is no silver bullet.” It’s true. We probably need a Gatling gun. The good news is that many, if not most, of the key technology pathways we will need to achieve a low carbon future are already identified and known. One of the inputs that Emissions Reduction Alberta (ERA) is bringing to the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative is our Technology Roadmap, a vision to help Alberta and Canada achieve this net-zero future and a key strategic document we use to guide our investments and project portfolio mix. It outlines key technology areas that will enable Alberta to build off its strengths and have a competitive economy that is contributing to a prosperous, lower emissions world. Some of the substantial decarbonization opportunities outlined in the Roadmap exist in the oil and gas industry. As it happens, there are already big investments bringing that to life. By exploring areas like partial upgrading, advanced recovery techniques, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), Alberta’s energy industry is working to get the carbon out of the barrel just as it got the sand out of the oil a generation before. Since the oil sands industry is the largest and fastest growing source of greenhouse gases in Alberta, this has the potential to make a significant impact. Now, we need to achieve an even more ambitious target — not just per-barrel intensity reductions, but overall emissions reductions. CCUS not only plays a role in reducing emissions from existing industries, it also lays a foundation for exciting opportunities on the horizon that will create new economic activity, new jobs, and new industries and markets. It is integral to developing clean hydrogen which offers a solution to lower emissions in many hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as chemical manufacturing and heavy-duty transport. The creation and storage of low-emitting electricity is another opportunity to tap into some of Alberta’s existing hydrocarbon infrastructure, innovation, and expertise. From extracting lithium from its oil reservoirs to power the world’s growing fleet of electric vehicles, to taking advantage of Alberta’s existing expertise in drilling wells and applying it to the province’s best geothermal sites and producing energy from those old well sites. These are just chapters in the larger story for Alberta’s energy and emissions future. Innovation can be found everywhere. Changes to land use practices and urban planning can help sequester or minimize carbon emissions. Support for the province’s bioenergy sector can also deliver some quick and important wins for both the economy and the environment. Likewise, helping large emitters and heavy industry implement energy efficient upgrades and improve their operational processes is low-hanging fruit, ripe for the picking. ERA’s role is to help Alberta achieve its environmental and economic goals, and our participation in the EFPC will help us shape and learn more about the road ahead. We have shared our vision of what a successful future looks like, and our Technology Roadmap is how we can get there. Crucially for the collaborative, ERA can play an essential role in the de-risking and development of technologies that help both decarbonize Alberta’s existing economy and create technologies and pathways that are critical to the economic opportunities of the future. We need to cast a wide net. We must imagine, innovate, invent, and invest, across the board. Advances and successes in one sector can benefit and create space for progress in another. Transitioning to a clean energy future is complex and will take time. It requires the right policy signals and appropriate investments to support scaling-up promising technologies and adopting new ones that will help us take us another step toward creating the low carbon future the world is demanding. #Federal_Policy #Provincial_Policy #Sustainable_Finance #ERA_Technology_Roadmap #Culture_Shift #Regional_Pathways #CCUS #Batteries #Rooftop_Solar #Commercial_Solar #Commercial_Wind #Geothermal_Energy #Geothermal_From_Oil_Wells #Bio_Fuel #2021

Tech for Tomorrow’s Alberta: ERA’s Technology Roadmap & Future-Fit Hydrocarbons

Around the world, countries, corporations, and people are picking up the call for a net-zero future. This global rallying cry is highlighting that we need to do more to reach a lower emissions future and we need to do it at an exponential pace. We cannot close the gap between our reality today, and our aspirations for what is possible, without developing and deploying technologies that both manage our greenhouse gas emissions and add value to our economy. The transition to a lower emissions...

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A shift towards a world with drastically lower carbon emissions appears to be in the cards. The UNFCC noted that global commitments to reach net-zero emissions from regions, cities, corporations, and countries has doubled since September 2019, and that was before China, Japan, and South Korea all pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or 2060. This transition towards low carbon emission energy sources in global markets will utterly transform resource economies long-term. Canadian governments at all levels will not only need to think about diversification, but to act and invest ambitiously if they want to maintain current levels of economic prosperity in a changing world. However, they must undertake the difficult task of deciding which ideas are worth supporting in a world with a very uncertain future. For governments facing these decisions, a useful frame for thinking about change is through a “transition pathways lens”. As one of several lenses that the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative will be adopting, this blog provides a high-level of overview of what transition pathways are, how they can be considered, and how policymakers can think about selecting the “right” pathways to support the achievement of their outcomes. Pathways 101 Transition pathways are a concept used in academic and policy work to think about change through a systems lens. Pathways are, at their core, a framework for thinking about how change happens in economies. Transition pathways outline one or more “paths” that an economy, industry, or region can take to get from ‘Point A’ (the current states of things) to ‘Point B’ (a desired future state). The evolution of personal transportation from horse and cart to the internal combustion engine automobile is a historic example of a successful transition pathway. Battery-electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles have both emerged as potential pathways in the 21st century, although they have not yet displaced incumbents (and may not ultimately end up doing so). Pathways help outline the timing, scope, and scale of change necessary throughout the whole landscape for a region, industry, or economy to get from Point A to Point B. Importantly, this is not the same as a strategy: strategies are plans that outline how to get from A to B. Pathways help outline what needs to be considered, and what will matter, when assessing whether a given idea or concept is capable of getting us from A to B. Each pathway is made up of a combination of ideas and processes that shape the world we operate in. In the real world, change is influenced by a broad array of factors: technological process, social beliefs, economic ideology, mainstream cultural views, investment patterns, infrastructure networks, and more. Transition pathways are a useful framework for decision-makers because they can help outline how each of these ideas might influence the way change happens at a system-level, identifying what barriers or factors need to be considered or addressed when opting to pursue a particular goal. Change management Pathways are used to understand how interactions between different ideas create the landscape we operate in. This is important because the trajectory or direction of a given pathway will ultimately be shaped not by one idea, but by how that idea interacts with all other processes and beliefs held throughout the world. The difference between a good idea and a useful one is whether it works in practice; pathways help outline what is actually needed to help a particular idea achieve a desired outcome. Three concepts matter in discussions of pathways: the incumbent, the niche, and the landscape. “Incumbents” describe the ideas, groups, and processes that make up the status quo. They form the foundation of the world we live in today. To continue personal transportation as an example, incumbents would include oil companies who refine gasoline, networks of retail gas stations, and popular opinions about high-performance sports cars. They are the mainstream ideas, processes and beliefs that shape how we interact with technologies and each other. “Niches” describe innovative concepts and ideas whose success depends on upending or disrupting the status quo. In the case of personal transport, examples include electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian, global pledges for net-zero emissions, and proponents of electrified transportation. These technologies and ideas are currently considered interesting and high-potential but can hardly claim to be the dominant technology in practice today. Yet they have the potential to eventually become incumbent ideas, depending on what kind of change the world experiences in the coming years. The “landscape” is a frame for thinking about how every set of actors, processes, groups and ideas ultimately makes the world the way it is. The landscape, or the world we live in, is shaped by interactions between incumbents and niches, since each aims to influence change in their favour. The trajectory of a pathway is defined by how these interactions take place, and that contest of ideas is what shapes the landscape we operate in globally. What is a “good” pathway? Identifying which pathways policymakers want to support depends on understanding what kind of future people want to live in. A “good” pathway is one that is capable of bringing about that future and can do so even if the world shifts around it. However, there are still some foundational characteristics that any pathway must possess to be seen as legitimate. At a minimum, good pathways must be: Credible: Pathways must be based on the realities we live in. Effective pathways have to largely rely on ideas that are technically possible and used in practice, even if only at small-scale. Compelling: Pathways must be attractive to investors and stakeholders. This means that designing pathways must keep in mind what investors are seeking in projects, and what the public will support, and incorporate those views into their approaches. Capable: Pathways must possess the technical potential to actually achieve their objectives. This is most obvious in discussions of emissions mitigation. Any pathway compatible with a net-zero future must be technically capable of reaching a net-zero climate target, or it will not be able to achieve set objectives in practice. Flexible: Pathways need to be able to change as circumstance does. The world moves quickly, and any pathway developed needs to be robust and flexible enough that it can swiftly adjust to new information without incurring huge losses or needing to be abandoned. Pathways are a useful frame for thinking about how change happens. As new and established ideas compete for market share and public attention in the decades to come, Canadian policymakers will need to ensure they are supporting the ideas that drive growth and regional prosperity. For the Energy Futures Policy Collaborative, thinking about how change happens is a useful way to ensure grounded, realistic decisions are made about what is required to build the future we want to live in. #Regional_Pathways #Culture_Shift #Provincial_Policy #Federal_Policy #2021

What is a Pathway? A conceptual overview of transition pathways

A shift towards a world with drastically lower carbon emissions appears to be in the cards. The UNFCC noted that global commitments to reach net-zero emissions from regions, cities, corporations, and countries has doubled since September 2019, and that was before China, Japan, and South Korea all pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or 2060. This transition towards low carbon emission energy sources in global markets will utterly transform resource economies long-term. Canadian...

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As a second COVID wave hits the province with full force and the impacts of prolonged economic repercussions become clearer, Alberta faces challenges that will ask us to reimagine what it means to bring our ingenuity, expertise, and innovative spirit to bear. In a province already reimagining the future of its energy sector, COVID-19 has shocked demand and disrupted expectations we might have had about what the future could look like. This turbulence has been accompanied by an accelerated commitment among financial institutions to scrutinize their investment portfolios and other activity through a climate science lens. The UN Principles for Responsible Investment initiative, a leading body pushing towards low-carbon pathways, has reported that signatories have more than $100 trillion in assets under management, and the Bank of Canada has made recent public statements about how we will need to decarbonize many facets of our lives in order to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. Global investors are demanding a more stringent reckoning with an emerging consensus that prioritizes climate risk. With all of this as backdrop, several leading oil and gas companies have reduced the reported value of their assets by more than $80 billion in the first three quarters of 2020. The climate-concerned investment trends are frequently presented as a problem for Alberta, but they could be an opportunity instead. The flip side of having high per-capita and per-barrel emissions is that Alberta has major emissions reduction potential. It means we should be a big market for the developers of clean technology solutions. Combine that with a strong history of innovation in carbon management and the potential for new ‘future-fit’ hydrocarbon feedstocks, and Alberta should have considerable opportunities to access the capital looking to finance the transition to a low-carbon emissions economy. What’s been holding us back? First, a view that the past must be entirely left in the past, abandoning existing skills, infrastructure, and resources in pursuit of a net-new future vision. Perfect can be the enemy of good, and the prospect of stranded assets creates real uncertainty at every level of society. Second, however, is uncertainty about where the terrain of global energy systems and markets may shift to and at what pace, combined with an inability to collectively acknowledge the reality that the “good old days” may not return. Taken together, overcoming these challenges require us to look to the future while also building on the rich legacy of Alberta’s communities and the enterprises they have built. It is in this middle space of transition there is an important role for policymakers to play. Even as there is some crystallization around what should be left in the unsustainable past and what we might aim for in a low-carbon emissions future, in between there is a deep need for transition solutions, especially for resource-rich jurisdictions. Policymakers will be crucial in holding the space for better visions to evolve and attract supporters, in fostering sectoral responses, in creating the conditions for social and technological innovation to thrive, and in sending policy signals that are durable, credible, and on the scale of the challenges we face. The Energy Futures Policy Collaborative (EFPC), an initiative of the Max Bell Foundation and the Energy Futures Lab, also involving the Canada West Foundation, Smart Prosperity Institute, Business Council of Alberta, and Emissions Reduction Alberta, aims to identify and support these possible responses. It will explore the question: How we might use public policy to help attract greater investment and talent into the innovation and infrastructure for ‘future-fit’ hydrocarbons, in light of global investors’ increasing concern with climate change and growing appetite for low-emissions and transition-oriented opportunities. The EFPC will unfold over the course of two years, casting a wide net and engaging more than just the usual suspects. This broad lens may seem perplexing to stakeholders on all sides of the convening question, who may have a laundry list of specific challenges and a portfolio of preferred solutions. It is essential, however, that we don’t zoom in too quickly. By keeping our frame broad, we aim to: Push ourselves to investigate the problem space from different perspectives, surfacing assumptions and asking better questions that open up new possibilities for solutions, Map the landscape of existing initiatives, projects, and thinking, enabling us to anchor in potent policy windows and to be additive and complementary to work quickly coming online Take a systems approach, recognizing the fact that no single actor or solution can move the needle alone and building towards a portfolio of possible solutions designed to amplify opportunities and anticipate unintended consequences. Though our process will be systematic and structured, the journey we’ll be undertaking to explore this question will not be a linear one. A developmental approach will provide the team with real time feedback on what’s working and what’s not working, in addition to raising the question of whether our work is making a difference. This policy collaborative is also taking a new approach by building time into the process to conduct small scale testing. Lastly, while the process primarily targets policy recommendations as its key deliverables, it has been designed in such a way that it offers the possibility that potential solutions and initiatives could also emerge that are not policy-focused or targeted at governments (e.g. new partnerships, projects, public engagement activities, products/services). The Energy Futures Lab is well set up as a platform to connect such additional initiatives to further testing and development through its extensive network and existing partnerships. The importance of this project being a collaborative that aims to harness the power of diverse perspectives cannot be understated. A multidimensional challenge such as this requires a multidimensional approach, one that taps into a broader and deeper variety of expertise, people, and lived experiences. Crucially, this is an opportunity to demonstrate to climate-concerned investors that there is a broader network of Alberta innovators and professionals working to bridge the gap between where Alberta’s energy sector currently sits in relation to climate change responses, and where it needs to sit for investors to feel confident investing in Alberta hydrocarbon resources, technologies, and skills. As we set off on this initiative, there’s a palpable sense, in all corners, that the status quo can’t continue, with as many root causes and possible solutions as there are stakeholders. Our aspiration is to help policy leaders respond to and map pathways in this dynamic environment, and ultimately to play a role in helping attract climate-concerned investment capital into the innovations and infrastructure that will position Alberta for success in the 21st century. #Clean_Technologies #Regional_Pathways #Sustainable_Finance #Scenarios_for_Albertas_Energy_Future #Prosperous_Transition_Blueprint_and_Campaign #Energy_Futures_Policy_Collaborative #FutureFit_Hydrocarbons #FutureFit_Hydrocarbons #Sustainable_Finance_Transition_Index #2020

Building a Policy Bridge to Future-Fit Hydrocarbons

As a second COVID wave hits the province with full force and the impacts of prolonged economic repercussions become clearer, Alberta faces challenges that will ask us to reimagine what it means to bring our ingenuity, expertise, and innovative spirit to bear. In a province already reimagining the future of its energy sector, COVID-19 has shocked demand and disrupted expectations we might have had about what the future could look like. This turbulence has been accompanied by an accelerated...

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Sitting in his kitchen with a ballpoint pen and a small coiled notebook, Walter considers his expenses. With December looming around the corner, he laments the fact that his furnace, after all these years, has chosen to retire on the heels of winter. With his natural gas furnace no longer working, Walter has purchased two electric heaters to warm his home. These new additions leave him feeling unsure of how best to tackle his energy bills and this nervousness inspires him to investigate his home’s various electrical needs. In his son’s room, shelves decked with plastic dinosaurs and superhero posters adorn the walls. A small boy by the name of Brooks sits in the corner with a laptop propped over his knees. Walter approaches and unplugs the computer cord, telling the boy to finish his homework by hand. The boy’s teacher, he assures, won’t mind. Little does Walter know that the cost of powering his son’s laptop is of little significance, especially when compared to the oversized electric heaters he’s had running since the furnace died. Still, these days he hopes to divert whatever savings he can. Walter is one of the 2.8 million Canadians living in energy poverty, paying a disproportionate amount of his earnings on his energy bills. The average Albertan family will spend $2,699/yr while an energy poor family will spend upwards of $3,333. What’s even more troubling is the fact that energy poor families tend to earn 53% less than the Provincial average, earning approximately $36,914 a year versus $77,926. This combination of higher than average bills and lower than average income has resulted in a state of affairs that requires additional support. Unfortunately, Alberta has yet to remedy the situation, to create a solution that takes into account the uniqueness of each household, homeowner and sequence of events leading a person into this kind of experience. In this energy-intensive province, where average winters are both long and cold, there are grace periods during which utilities must wave the threat of disconnection. For example, electricity cannot be disconnected from October 15 to April 15 while natural gas cannot be disconnected from November 1 to April 15. But for payment-troubled customers, this is nothing more than a temporary delay, a band-aid if you will. Eventually, bills must be paid and for people like Walter, energy bills are mentally, physically and financially taxing. While spring, in many occasions, is considered noteworthy for its heavy rains and burgeoning tulips, the season also brings with it a rise in anxiety related to housing stability, as families experiencing energy poverty are forced to pay accumulated bills, thereby diverting money for rent or mortgages. Now consider Alberta’s population as it approaches 4.5 million residents. With 237,000 of these residents living in energy poverty, one might even be willing to consider this challenge a crisis and with it, the countless health and emotional side effects that accompany energy poor individuals. These side effects are wide ranging, and include everything from increased cardiovascular and pulmonary disease to lower birth weights among infants or kids who, on average, miss 15% more days of school. For Walter, living in energy poverty came as a shock. In fact, he doesn’t even consider himself “poor,” he just knows that paying his bills involves a struggle. For all his life, he’s worked hard. Been diligent. Independent. But things are much different now, far bleaker than the day he’d signed off on this house, with its sprawling front deck and bright yellow exterior. Back then he’d felt relieved, thinking he could, at last, claim independence. That all would be well. For the most part, it had been, at least until the day he fractured his spine and totaled his truck a few Octobers past. In the weeks to follow he’d spent the last of his savings on a used vehicle. Living in a rather remote location, he hadn’t much choice in the matter seeing as neither the grocery store nor his son’s school are within walking distance from his house. Shortly after this difficult purchase, he learned the meaning of “paycheck to paycheck,” though in Walter’s case, these checks came from the government and never did they allow him to save for even the smallest of home repairs. He received a lot of skepticism, too, about the money that is. From nosey neighbours and from others who viewed his existence as nothing more than “a burden on society.” Why couldn’t he afford to pay his bills? After all, people said the government was giving him a “handout.” At a time, he might have thought the same thing but now he’s running three electric heaters to make up for the broken furnace and paying his mortgage and purchasing groceries and toilet paper and all the while he’s got a child whose school is demanding fees for an upcoming field trip and whose backpack has a broken zipper and for whom Walter is still hoping to buy a birthday present in two weeks time. Meanwhile he hasn’t a spare $5000 to spend on upgrades like a high efficiency furnace that might reduce his energy bills, even if he were to get back $1500 of that as part of a rebate program. Nor can he assume any more debt, despite the province’s financing options for homeowners seeking to improve the efficiency of their houses. With poor credit and no upfront cash, neither of these options are of any benefit to someone like Walter. Alberta is one of the last provinces in Canada to support the one in five people struggling to pay their energy bills. Energy poor individuals are in dire need of support, but in saying this, it’s also important to note that not each home or homeowner needs the exact same kind of support. Looking, for example, at a home’s single pane windows or its crumbling insulation, the broken ducts or furnace or even the size of a home, you’ll find many secrets and stories. These revelations speak to an order of priority as to how one might spend money to increase the efficiency of a home and decrease the cost of bills. New showerheads and lightbulbs won’t help Walter. In fact, looking for solutions to energy poverty is very much akin to the way a doctor assesses their patients’ health. Imagine if patients were to sit down on a bed of crinkled paper and the doctor, upon entering the room and without looking at the patient, immediately claimed to have found a solution. In no world would this make good sense. Now apply this same thinking to a home. How can a program tend to any home or homeowner’s ills without first assessing the home or even taking the time to hear the homeowner’s unique story? Prescribing LED light bulbs to a home might therefore be compared to a doctor who blindly prescribes antidepressant medication to a patient suffering from a bladder infection. While taking the time with homeowners and their houses can help build a climate of trust between energy poor individuals and those offering solutions, it also provides insight into how one might best allocate a given number of dollars to reduce energy bills. If a home such as Walter’s is suffering from a broken furnace, installing new LED light bulbs or insulation may not result in the best return on investment. Taking the time to understand what is needed in each home is called a “diagnostic approach” and recognizes that there is no “one size fits all” solution to energy poverty or to improving energy inefficient homes. Walter’s story demonstrates the need for tailored solutions to energy poverty. There is no better way to tackle such a broad challenge than by developing programs that ensure the needs of individual homeowners are both seen and heard. In doing so, we can build a climate of trust with payment-troubled customers by taking the time to connect with their stories and the homes in which they dwell. Furthermore, investments will experience stronger returns as dollars are allocated to a home’s most pressing needs. With support from Alberta innovators, government and utility companies, we can work together to create a more prosperous future for all Albertans. By collaborating as a province, we can create an energy poverty reduction program grounded in a diagnostic approach. In doing, we can create a future for Alberta in which no person is left behind. #Future_Economy #Culture_Shift #Regional_Pathways #Energy_Poverty #2020

In Lieu of Lightbulbs: A Look at Energy Poverty in Alberta

Sitting in his kitchen with a ballpoint pen and a small coiled notebook, Walter considers his expenses. With December looming around the corner, he laments the fact that his furnace, after all these years, has chosen to retire on the heels of winter. With his natural gas furnace no longer working, Walter has purchased two electric heaters to warm his home. These new additions leave him feeling unsure of how best to tackle his energy bills and this nervousness inspires him to investigate his...

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The outbreak of COVID-19 has triggered a global economic crisis that was unimaginable even two weeks ago, and perhaps nowhere is that being felt more acutely than in Alberta. In addition to the obvious consequences of social distancing on businesses and industry, we’re also dealing with a gut-wrenching collapse in oil prices that’s being driven in part by a deepening conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Taken together, the combination of falling oil prices and a temporary collapse in the broader economy will put Alberta’s community and business leaders to the toughest test they’ve ever faced — one that they cannot afford to fail. But there’s an old saying that breakdowns can create breakthroughs, and there are some very important ones that could happen in Alberta if the right decisions are made in this crisis. Investments today can help enable structural changes that unlock longer term opportunities that will be key to future prosperity. Yes, the oil and gas industry needs support to weather the storm that it’s been hit with. At the same time, efforts by the federal and provincial government can’t just focus on sustaining what Alberta already has. They should also be directed towards areas where it can build new industries and opportunities, along with the jobs and investment they could sustain. The most strategic investments of all will leverage Alberta’s legacy assets and resources to enable the economy of the future. Thankfully, a growing network of innovators and partner organizations have been collaborating for years through the Energy Futures Lab to develop a shared sense of the big opportunity areas in an energy system and economy that are fit for the future. Here are five key areas where governments looking to offer help today should be directing their attention. Hydrogen The hydrogen economy has been slow to take off around the world, and its promise has been touted for some time now. But its role in a low-carbon economy is becoming more clear with each passing day, and Alberta is well-positioned to capitalize on that by leveraging its many resources and capabilities. By combining its massive deposits of natural gas with carbon-capture technology, Alberta could be a leader in the production and export of so-called “Blue Hydrogen” — a fuel source that combines high energy intensity with low emissions. Better yet, it can be produced in Alberta at half the wholesale cost of diesel. As the University of Calgary’s David Layzell and Jessica Hof noted in a recent op-ed for the Edmonton Journal, the economic possibilities here are tantalizing. “If the province produced and exported hydrogen as a transportation fuel,” they wrote, “instead of selling an equivalent amount of crude oil and natural gas to the U.S. at discount prices, the Alberta economy could generate three to 10 times more economic activity.” And as they noted in a recent report for CESAR (Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research) and the Transition Accelerator, Alberta enjoys cost advantages over most other potential producers of hydrogen. Image courtesy of CESAR/The Transition Accelerator Yes, the market for the hydrogen economy has been slow to take shape, but that’s beginning to change. There were more than 50 strategies and targets put in place last year, from Germany to South Korea, to enable the development of hydrogen-based systems. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics will not take place until 2021, but one thing we know for sure is that the Olympic flame will be powered by hydrogen for the first time in history. Hydrogen will also power the 6,000-unit Olympic Village, as well as the buses and cars that will move athletes between venues. According to Sam French, an editorial advisory board member with H2 View, “[The] Tokyo Olympics will provide the platform for hydrogen to pole vault into the mainstream. We’re on the cusp of a major energy transition. 2020 could very well be the year to shift public perception and unleash the global hydrogen market.” While electric vehicles are all the rage right now in many circles, hydrogen-powered ones are ready to make their move. The Toyota Mirai, which has been in production since 2014 and was recently revamped with a 30% larger driving range, is part of the Japanese automaker’s push to grow the market for fuel-cell vehicles. Then there’s the Nikola Motor Company, an American firm whose Badger is being touted as the most advanced zero emissions FCEV/BEV pick-up truck in the world. With 980 ft. lbs of torque, 906 peak horsepower, and 455 continuous horsepower, it won’t lack for muscle. Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy But where hydrogen really shines is in the heavy transport space, which accounts for a large and growing proportion of our overall emissions.As Layzell and Hof noted in their Edmonton Journal op-ed, in Alberta alone freight transportation accounts for 12 million tonnes of GHGs every year, along with 70 percent of diesel fuel demand. Replacing that with hydrogen would drive huge emissions reductions in the near term and even bigger economic opportunities down the proverbial road. That’s why it’s time for the federal and provincial governments to put their full weight behind ideas that increase the use of hydrogen in the heavy transport space. That includes everything from injecting hydrogen into existing diesel engine transport trucks, which would support the build out of the infrastructure that’s needed for a wider network of hydrogen fueling stations, to the Alberta Zero-Emissions Truck Electrification Collaboration Project, a $15 million, three-year joint venture between Emissions Reduction Alberta and the private sector. Hydrogen’s moment is upon us, and Alberta can play a major role in that — and benefit accordingly. Geothermal Energy Geothermal offers some of the lowest-hanging economic fruit available right now, given Alberta’s demonstrated capacity for drilling and developing sources of energy and its rich inventory of potential geothermal sites (which includes old oil and gas wells). If Alberta companies like Terrapin Geothermics and Borealis Geopower were empowered to build out 300 megawatts worth of geothermal electricity, along with an array of geothermally-heated district energy networks, it could spark a $3.6 billion economic boom — one that would employ welders, bit suppliers, construction workers, drilling crews, pumping equipment suppliers, and a host of other people and small businesses. The Pico Alto Geothermal Power Plant on the Island of Terceira in the Azores. Image courtesy of Terrapin Geothermics By drilling 186 new wells, it would support over $900 million in new drilling activity alone — a vital contribution to a sector that is being waylaid by collapsing oil prices and the resulting decline in the number of wells being drilled. And because geothermal wells are often larger and more complex than ones looking for hydrocarbons, they tend to last up to four times longer than conventional oil and gas drilling operations. Here, that would mean 7,500 total drilling days and 750 direct jobs, along with 5,625 indirect and induced drilling-related jobs. That’s not all. By unlocking 138 million gigajoules of low-carbon baseload heat, it could support district heating systems and meet industrial demand in a way that’s good for the environment and the economy. The creation of new district heating systems could support 10,000 jobs during the construction phase and 300 for their operation, along with 6,600 indirect jobs, and create an asset that industries like pulp and paper and agriculture can put to good use. Finally, if the 300 megawatts of waste thermal heat generated by the Alberta Industrial Heartland and Strathcona Industrial Area was captured, it could both reduce emissions and create value. At present, there’s approximately 7.5 million gigajoules of heat that’s vented into the atmosphere in those two places, a figure that represents $39 million in lost value. By building a 50 kilometre district heat network that connects these two areas, the province could activate $50 million in direct construction activity, support over 300 jobs, and create $92 million in total economic opportunity. The team at Borealis GeoPower Geothermal development is low-hanging fruit, and picking it will create jobs, reduce emissions, and support a sector of the economy that will otherwise suffer more with falling global oil prices. Lithium Another opportunity to leverage Alberta’s oil and gas assets to develop a new industry highly relevant for a low carbon emissions future is with lithium. This may strike some as ironic, given that lithium is a key component in the electric vehicles that some in the oil and gas industry see as a threat to their business. For those in the province’s burgeoning lithium sector, though, like e3 Metals and Summit Nanotech, EVs are a key driver of demand for their product — one that’s made right here in Alberta. And the more of those cars that get made, the more lithium will be needed to do it. Demand for lithium is expected to start outstripping supply as soon as 2025. Most of that supply currently comes from Australia, South America, and China, where it’s produced using environmentally dubious techniques like hard-rock mining or evaporation ponds. Here in Alberta, on the other hand, it’s already being produced as a byproduct in oil and gas drilling, especially in the brine that comes out of wells in the Leduc Reservoir region. All that’s needed is a willingness to extract the lithium and refine it — a process that would require the same kind of government support that helped lay the foundations for the oil sands industry a generation ago. Image courtesy of e3 Metals Corp Doing that could create hundreds of full-time jobs in the near term, and many more as the industry reduces its operating costs and starts to scale up. Eventually, Alberta could even play host to battery manufacturing plants, and the plethora of high-paying jobs and spin off economic opportunities that would create. Most importantly, it would give the province a valuable hedge against the possibility that electric vehicles really do take off in popularity, and put a dent in global demand for oil in the process. Bitumen Beyond Combustion It’s no secret that Alberta is sitting on hundreds of billions of barrels of bitumen, the thick and heavy deposits that have been getting steamed and mined out of the earth for decades. But the fact that we could be doing something other than putting that bitumen into barrels and sending it off to refineries? That very much remains a secret to many people, even right here in Alberta. To its credit, the Government of Alberta has been trying to change that. Through the “Bitumen Beyond Combustion” program that’s been championed by Alberta Innovates, it has invested in research that studies other economic opportunities and applications for bitumen. That research has already yielded some very interesting results, with potential uses ranging from asphalt and activated carbon to vanadium (for batteries) and carbon nanotubes. But the most exciting discovery is the possible applications in carbon fibre technology, something that is being supported by a $15 million Carbon Fibre Grand Challenge. Carbon fibre is ten-times stronger than steel, and composite materials that use it are being tested in a wide range of potential applications, from automobiles and the aerospace industry to concrete, plastics, and wood products. And while demand for crude oil and products refined from it like gasoline and diesel may start to decline in the near future, it is going nowhere but up for things like cars, homes, buildings, roads, and consumer goods. Bitumen-derived asphaltenes have two key advantages: a significantly smaller environmental impact than energy products that are combusted, and a dramatically lower supply cost ($0.50/kg versus polyacrylonitrile at $7–14/kg) than other potential sources of carbon fibre. Image courtesy of Corporate Knights While a bitumen-based carbon fibre industry is at least five years away from commercial production at meaningful scale, direct and meaningful government funding could help speed that along. It could also help grow the market and position Alberta as a leader in it. That market could be very, very big, given that it aligns perfectly with the lower-carbon emissions economy that’s being built as we speak. It can make cars lighter, and give them better mileage. It can make bridges more durable, and ensure they need to be replaced every 200 years rather than every 50. And it can make consumer products like hockey sticks, bicycles, and prosthetics more affordable. Best of all, it can do all of these things without creating significant downstream emissions — an obvious advantage over bitumen that gets combusted, where more than three-quarters of current emissions take place. Bitumen beyond combustion turns the carbon intensity of the oilsands from a liability into an asset. If the market reaches its potential, the value of every barrel in the ground in Alberta would increase by five to ten times — and a new industry could take root that might one day generate between $50 billion and $100 billion in annual revenue. Artificial Intelligence When it’s all said and done, artificial intelligence and machine learning may prove to be the most important economic developments of the 21st century. They are already transforming the way people work in an ever-expanding range of industries, from agriculture and oil and gas to tech and manufacturing, and their influence will only continue to grow. And much of that influence is coming right from our own backyard in Edmonton, where the University of Alberta and the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute have long been leaders in this space. Their work, and their presence, helped attract Google’s Deep Mind to Edmonton, where it set up its first international research office in 2017. The power of AI is no secret to some of Alberta’s biggest companies, either. Suncor, for example, has made AI and machine learning a key part of its “Suncor 4.0” plan, which will see it partnering with Microsoft to bring new technologies to bear on its entire business. As Suncor’s Sandy Martin told the Financial Post, “If you think into the future — and wherever that future is — there isn’t an environment where any company survives without becoming digital.” Imperial Oil, meanwhile, recently announced a two-year agreement with the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute that will see them work together to help the oil giant build out its in-house machine learning capabilities and apply them to a wide range of environmental and operational challenges. But Alberta’s advantage in this space is starting to slip, as other cities and countries compete to attract AI talent and capital. Where the University of Alberta used to rank in the top five among post-secondary institutions in the world for AI in terms of the number of publications and academic citations, it has slipped to 13th over the last five years. While universities around the world are investing billions of dollars in new facilities and infrastructure — MIT alone is investing $1 billion to create a new college that combines AI, machine learning, and data science with other academic disciplines — the University of Alberta is starting to fall behind. What’s needed is a renewed commitment by government to supporting the AI sector, both in words and deeds. That will mean reinstating the Scientific Research and Experimental Development Tax Credit and increasing, rather than decreasing, budgets for entities like Alberta Innovates and the University of Alberta. Most importantly, it will mean treating new forms of economic activity in the province as a genuine opportunity rather than competition for incumbent industries. AI researchers and innovators thrive on solving problems in other sectors and systems, and Alberta’s energy sector is both rich in data and ripe with challenges that need to be addressed as it looks to strengthen its cost and carbon competitiveness and stay relevant in a shifting energy landscape. Alberta should be fertile ground for AI innovation, and government can play an important role in making that happen. Yes, It’s Time Albertans understand what it means to chase a shared economic goal, and they’ve been very successful in doing that over the last few decades. Now, it’s time to chase a new one: a future in which the term energy encompasses a wider range of possibilities, where we use our past strengths on new opportunities, and where these new opportunities aren’t impeded by old blind spots. It’s a future defined by economies of support, where one opportunity begets and actually advances another. That’s why these aren’t five separate tracks but rather interconnected pathways of opportunity and possibility. And that’s why they deserve to be supported as we all try to put the pieces of our lives, our businesses, our province, and our country back together. #Hydrogen #Geothermal_Energy #Lithium_from_Brine #Batteries #Bitumen_Beyond_Combustion #Advanced_Materials #CCUS #Artificial_Intelligence #Clean_Technologies #Culture_Shift #Future_Economy #2020

Five Big Ideas for Alberta’s Economic Recovery

The outbreak of COVID-19 has triggered a global economic crisis that was unimaginable even two weeks ago, and perhaps nowhere is that being felt more acutely than in Alberta. In addition to the obvious consequences of social distancing on businesses and industry, we’re also dealing with a gut-wrenching collapse in oil prices that’s being driven in part by a deepening conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Taken together, the combination of falling oil prices and a temporary collapse in the...

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We are excited to announce our newest Fellows! The EFL has been steadily welcoming new Fellows since its inception in 2015. We now have over 65 Fellows from different organizations and communities to advance EFL initiatives and continue to shape the energy system the future requires of us. The EFL Fellows have demonstrated the power of shared leadership, co-creation, and experimentation. We are proud of our Fellows and are excited to announce this impressive group who will contribute alongside the current cohort: Aatif Baskanderi, QUEST Abbas Ali Beg, ATCO Brandon Holterman, Seven Generations Chelsea Donelon, TransAlta Corporation Dallas Dunn, TransAlta Corporation Hossein Shahandeh, Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute (Amii) Jennifer D’Aoust, Energy Efficiency Alberta (EEA) Jordan Stein, City of Calgary Mark Chidwick, eDecisions Solutions Ltd. Petr Musilek, University of Alberta Steve Saddleback, Indian Resource Council Sydney Kjellander, Alberta Clean Technology Industry Alliance (ACTia) Yasmin Abraham, Empower Me Welcome to the Energy Futures Lab! #Culture_Shift #Fellowship #2020

Welcome Fellows 2020!

We are excited to announce our newest Fellows! The EFL has been steadily welcoming new Fellows since its inception in 2015. We now have over 65 Fellows from different organizations and communities to advance EFL initiatives and continue to shape the energy system the future requires of us. The EFL Fellows have demonstrated the power of shared leadership, co-creation, and experimentation. We are proud of our Fellows and are excited to announce this impressive group who will contribute...

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In March this year we were all shocked by the COVID pandemic, causing a massive disruption in our personal and professional lives. One of the areas that, in particular, was disrupted were in-person gatherings, such as workshops, conferences and meetings. For those, like myself, who work on challenges that require innovation and collaboration of diverse groups of people, this provoked a major question: How can we continue to create engaging online experiences that are effective in moving our work forward? Over the past 6 months, we have had the pleasure of delivering dozens of engaging online workshops, from 9 person team retreats to 30 people workshops to 500 people conferences. Recently, we have had people reach out with questions seeking advice on how they can create similar experiences, and we thought that we would take a moment to share some key lessons that we have learned in case they are useful for you. Before going further, a couple of quick things. As always, please consider your context as a filter. You know your situation best, so take ideas that make sense for you and feel free to leave those that do not. Also, I am not going to discuss the basics of good meeting and workshop design, e.g. clarifying your need and purpose, framing meaningful questions, know your audience, etc. These continue to apply in an online context. So, without further ado, here are a few lessons about effective and engaging online collaboration. Lessons #1: Shift Your Paradigm The biggest mistake I have seen when approaching online workshops is to take what has worked effectively in-person and simply try to mimic it online. This won’t work. Rather than lamenting that you can’t get together in person, consider the positives of coming together online and design around those. For example, it allows more frequent connection, it is easier to fit into schedules, and teams can come together from greater geographic distances. This may lead to different patterns of engagement from, for example, larger longer in-frequent in-person gatherings to smaller, purposeful and more frequent gatherings. Lessons #2: Think Harvest Before Technology One of the first questions that we get asked: what online collaboration technology should I use? We suggest that you actually start with another: What do I want to harvest from this gathering? Consider what information is most useful for you and your team to capture and leave with. For example, if you are hosting a gathering and simply want some live reaction to a few questions, then something with a low learning curve like Slido could work for you. If you are working with a team looking at a complex innovation challenge, then something more flexible like Miro could act as work mat to allow teams to capture and manipulate ideas. Lesson #3: Build in Movement into Activity and Breaks Although seemingly obvious, it is easy to get into designing an online workshop and forget that people are fatigued by sitting in front of their screens. One way to address this is to build in some movement every 45 minutes or so. For example, this could simply be a break with a little stretch or encouragement to step outside. Another option is to build in paired walks into your design, asking participants to call each other on their cellphones (yes, they make calls as well) to explore a question or idea together while taking a stroll. Another is a solo journaling exercise with pen and paper. Another is to ask people to sit outside in a quiet spot and dial in on their phone for part of the conversation. You get the idea. Have fun and be creative, people will enjoy the human experience. Lesson #4 Design with Interaction in Mind One important rule in effective facilitation is to engage people with sight, sound, and movement within five minutes of the start, and to ideally continue to do this for the rest of the workshop every 15 minutes or so. This is even more important online where our past experiences of long presentations cause many of us to put the webinar in the background while we attend to other things. Lesson #2 and #3 above offer some ideas to do this, and I also wanted to give a shout out to the humble chatbox, a simple feature in online meeting platforms like Zoom or Teams. The chatbox allows for interaction amongst participants in a way that is not possible in-person. For example, rather than a design where you have a 60 minute panel of presentations and then stop for 30 minutes of Q&A, consider a series of snappy back to back 5 – 7 minute presentations where participants are encouraged to pose questions in real time via the chatbox, and where other participants and the presenter (once finished) can also respond in real time. When one presenter stops and another starts to keep the energy high. We have seen high levels of engagement and positive feedback to this approach that is only possible online (remember: shift the paradigm). I hope that this has been useful for you. This list is certainly not exhaustive, so feel free to share some of your lessons, ideas and best practices in the comments section. Questions also welcome and best of luck with your online sessions! #Culture_Shift #Fellowship #2020 #Process_Design

Four Lessons for Engaging and Effective Online Collaboration

In March this year we were all shocked by the COVID pandemic, causing a massive disruption in our personal and professional lives. One of the areas that, in particular, was disrupted were in-person gatherings, such as workshops, conferences and meetings. For those, like myself, who work on challenges that require innovation and collaboration of diverse groups of people, this provoked a major question: How can we continue to create engaging online experiences that are effective in moving our...

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As governments and industry around the world work to jump-start their economies and restart their businesses without triggering a second wave of COVID-19 infections, they’re suddenly open to ambitious ideas and policies that were on a slow track before the virus struck. But in straining for the highest fruit on the tree, we need to be careful that we don’t miss one of the easiest pieces to pick: energy efficiency. It will deliver results — and deliver them quickly. Installation of commercially available high-efficient technology saves more money than it costs, reduces emissions, and supports the local economy, producing high-quality local jobs while keeping investment in the community. But for too long, we’ve overlooked this opportunity. The good news is that now is the perfect time for that to change. A 2019 study by Navigant Guidehouse gives us a glimpse into the economic upside of an investment in energy efficiency in Alberta. Under a scenario where $150 million is invested in energy efficiency programming, the potential electricity savings in buildings, and non-oil and gas industrial facilities would be around 1% per year, a figure that’s similar to electrical efficiency targets found in other jurisdictions in Canada and the United States. And while 1% per year may not sound like very much, this represents $290 million in private sector investment and $1 billion per year in gross savings. Energy efficiency benefits are cumulative, which means by 2040 we’d see savings of 20% or more. That spending, a portion of which could come from an existing carbon levy, would also offset 900 megawatts of electricity system capacity, making it easier — and less expensive — to green the grid. Sustainable Projects Group staff reduce energy costs for their industrial and commercial clients by making their buildings and facilities run more efficiently. So if the math is this compelling, why haven’t we put it to work already? In part, it’s because we haven’t put a price on the value it creates. For example, no matter what your opinion may be on its effectiveness, exposure to the carbon pricing concept has led to an awareness within government and industries of an implied value of carbon as a commodity. Commodities can then be bought, sold, and traded, creating a market and revenue stream. Products like renewables and geothermal already have “value.” In other words, there is a mechanism in place that puts a price on the outputs of those projects and is generally accepted by business and financial institutions. We have yet to do that for the output of energy efficiency. If we did, it could be a game changer for business competitiveness in Alberta. That’s because it would help companies reduce their operating costs while increasing their resiliency to change and new challenges. This is important, given that our business sector was already facing competitiveness challenges from jurisdictions around the world before COVID hit. And while companies have recognized the value of incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into their corporate policies and business decisions, there are now (thanks to the economic impact of the virus) limited funds available for them to invest in energy efficiency opportunities. Without that additional investment, energy efficiency will remain unpicked fruit on the tree of opportunity. Building management companies such as Strategic Group use energy scans to identify opportunities to trim building operating costs while increasing comfort levels for tenants. CLEAResult staff supported this energy scan as part of the Strategic Energy Management program. Working to ensure this opportunity doesn’t get wasted is what inspired a partnership between the Energy Futures Lab and Energy Efficiency Alberta. This includes developing a rural small business pilot that makes energy efficiency improvements more accessible and financially viable. Working with municipalities to take the lead with an initiative that will offer Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing. And a new study that demonstrates the effectiveness of energy efficiency as a way to manage increased demand for electricity (which is anticipated to skyrocket with the electrification of the transportation system). We’re not the only ones who see the opportunity that energy efficiency offers right now, either. The recently announced Task Force for a Resilient Recovery, which features a wide range of high-profile business and environmental leaders, also believes that energy efficiency should play a key role as we rebuild our economy and invest in “shovel-worthy” projects. Now, we need to act — and there are four key ways that we can enable an energy efficient economic recovery. First, we should explicitly recognize energy efficiency as a resource under the Electric and Gas Utilities Act. Second, we need to increase access to the Alberta emission offset market, and address administrative barriers to entry that currently exist for smaller projects. Third, we can incorporate energy efficiency into our utility system, and use it to offset or defer higher-cost generation, transmission and distribution alternatives. And finally, it’s time to support ESG reporting and give lending institutions and investors the ability to more fully value the benefits of energy efficiency in their risk assessments and valuations. Over 2,200 rooftop solar panels on Calgary’s IKEA store are offsetting approximately 744 tonnes of C02 emissions per year. None of us would have chosen this current set of economic circumstances. The human and economic cost has been staggering. But as the world grapples with how to safely restart economies and move into recovery, we have a unique opportunity in Alberta to finally capture the value that energy efficiency can create for our industries, businesses, and institutions. If we do that, we’ll be that much closer to the prosperous and sustainable future that everyone wants to reach. #Electricity #Clean_Technologies #NonWires_Solutions #Rooftop_Solar #Shovel_Ready_Projects #2020

Why Energy Efficiency is An Opportunity Alberta Can’t Afford to Pass Up

As governments and industry around the world work to jump-start their economies and restart their businesses without triggering a second wave of COVID-19 infections, they’re suddenly open to ambitious ideas and policies that were on a slow track before the virus struck. But in straining for the highest fruit on the tree, we need to be careful that we don’t miss one of the easiest pieces to pick: energy efficiency. It will deliver results — and deliver them quickly. Installation of...

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